BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen is bracing to face an angry and unruly European Parliament that wants to air its long list of grievances as much as listen to her plans for the future.
When the European Commission president makes her first State of the European Union address of her second term on Wednesday, critics will accuse her of weakening Europe by selling out to Donald Trump via a lopsided U.S. trade deal, of abandoning farmers by endorsing an agreement with South America, of unraveling policies to tackle climate change, and of staying silent on Gaza ― to name just a few of the complaints that are piling up.
The speech is less a fresh start for the new political year ― and more a salvage operation.
“This was a bad summer for Europe,” said Bas Eickhout, co-chair of the Greens in the Parliament, a different political group from von der Leyen but one that voted her into office. “What we clearly want as a message from the president of the Commission is that things need to change.”
Barely 10 months into her second period at the helm, von der Leyen is under severe pressure ― from the democratically elected Parliament, from within the broader EU setup, and from global events. Political groups that for decades have been friendly toward center-right Commission presidents are now questioning those allegiances. Surging right-wing forces are demanding tougher policies on issues from migration to the environment, and see the EU as a convenient punching bag. The leaders of the U.S. and Russia have disturbed much that once seemed certain about Europe’s place in the world.
“We expect clear leadership from the executive,” Valérie Hayer, chief of the liberal Renew Europe group, told POLITICO. “Europe cannot afford institutional stagnation or standstill.”
It’s that apparent lack of leadership that has dismayed politicians from all sides and it’s why they’re ready to pounce on von der Leyen personally. Among members of the Commission and the Parliament, wounds are still fresh from a motion of no-confidence in von der Leyen in July. Groups at the more extreme ends of the political spectrum are already plotting another as soon as October ― an unprecedented show of opposition to a Commission president.
High tension and political polarization
While the State of the EU speech is often seen in Brussels as a rather mundane kickoff to the political season ― high on hyperbole and ceremony and low on tangible plans as the Commission president brags about the achievements of the past 12 months and issues big promises for the next ― there’s an undercurrent this year that will add significant frisson.
“I don’t think the Commission is scared,” said a well-positioned Commission official, speaking under condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of internal discussions. “But for sure there is awareness of the political tensions in Parliament and the discontent of political groups, including within the von der Leyen majority, towards some of the Commission’s actions and policies.”
What is normally a “routine” exercise of back-and-forth between the Parliament and the Commission to agree on the year’s policy plans is likely to be plagued by high tension and political polarization, said Richard Corbett, a former MEP and adviser to the European Council president.
Von der Leyen needs to make sure “to appease these different viewpoints in the Parliament,” he said.
The trouble is, she doesn’t have too many victories to show off apart from a €150 billion fund to boost defense ― and the Parliament brought legal action over that initiative after the Commission sidelined lawmakers to make it happen. She can also talk up laws to cut red tape to help struggling industry ― but they’re opposed by huge swathes of MEPs in the Socialist, Greens and liberal groups.
Despite many initiatives to improve Europe’s competitiveness ― sparked by a landmark report by ex-European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi a year ago ― the Parliament is critical of a lack of progress.
Only von der Leyen’s own group, the center-right European People’s Party, stands ready to defend her at all costs. But even among her own ranks, French, Polish and Irish lawmakers have slammed the Commission as “non-transparent” for rushing to finalize the Mercosur free trade agreement with five Latin American countries. The Commission concluded the pact amid a trade breakdown with the U.S.; its critics argue it undermines European farmers.
A ‘farce’
For many lawmakers, the no-confidence vote against von der Leyen just a month and a half ago opened a Pandora’s box. With just 76 signatures required to force another one, observers say it risks becoming a regular exercise rather than an extraordinary threat.
The Left group announced last week that it’s looking for another 26 signatures to launch a new vote as early as October, condemning von der Leyen for her silence on the conflict in Gaza and the U.S. trade deal.
“Once again this year, the SOTEU will be nothing more than a farce aimed at polishing the Commission’s image, while von der Leyen worsens the state of the European Union year after year,” The Left co-chair Manon Aubry told POLITICO.
The far-right Patriots group is also plotting their own no-confidence motion over the Mercosur agreement, said France’s Marine Le Pen, one of its most prominent members.
“These kinds of motions, in the context of an ongoing Russian offensive, serve only to weaken the EU and undermine Europe’s investment in our common security and defense,” said Andrzej Halicki, head of Poland’s Civic Coalition within the EPP ― von der Leyen’s political family.
Socialists and liberals, who ― in many cases grudgingly ― backed von der Leyen in July, now expect her to repay their loyalty by making clear commitments to the centrist majority, after they accused the Commission of siding with far-right groups in trying to kill an anti-greenwashing bill.
The Socialists, liberals and Greens ― which in the past have worked with the center-right EPP to pursue a moderate agenda ― have as much to lose from the EU’s instability as von der Leyen’s group, and don’t have much appetite for new motions.
“What we need is action, so a new motion of censure every two months is not possibly the way to ensure stability for our European project,” said Socialist group spokesperson Utta Tuttlies.
Yet the reality is that von der Leyen’s allies are using the motions of censure to apply pressure and to get concessions from the executive. Last time around the Socialists claimed von der Leyen had promised to maintain a social fund in the next EU long-term budget in exchange for their support.
Last week, the Socialists came out against the EU-U.S. trade deal, deepening the rift with von der Leyen’s EPP further.
When asked whether the Greens could support any new motion of censure, Eickhout said it all depended on what von der Leyen said during her speech.
“If the message next week is going to be we’re doing fine, we’re on the good track, let’s continue ― I think I made clear that that is not advisable,” he said.
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