BRUSSELS — The international world order is beyond repair and Europe should adapt to the law of the jungle — or else come up with new rules.
That’s the bleak message the European Commission is set to give on Tuesday in a text detailing major challenges ahead. “We are witnessing the erosion of the international rules-based order,” several drafts of its annual Strategic Foresight Report, seen by POLITICO, say.
Since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump has consistently shown contempt for institutions like the United Nations by withdrawing funding or pulling out of key U.N. bodies like the UNHCR, its refugee agency, and UNESCO, which works in education and science.
Trump’s global tariff threats have further undermined the authority of the World Trade Organization.
The European Union’s executive will acknowledge that these institutions likely won’t recover from the breakdown of the global order. In fact, Europe should prepare for it not to come back.
“A return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely,” the draft warns.
The EU could be particularly affected by this development. Key features of the bloc, such as its internal market, trade flows, international partnerships, and technical standards, all depend on a functioning multilateral system.
“The instability and partial disfunction of the international order and the partial fracturing of global economies have a destabilising effect on the EU’s ability to act in the interest of its economy and the well-being of its people,” it adds.
The final text of the report presented on Tuesday could still differ significantly from the drafts.
Embracing change
The Commission report aims to steer broader EU policies ranging from trade to technology, climate and other areas.
It will call for Europe to be ready for the advent of artificial intelligence that matches human thinking; for regulation of technologies to dim the power of the sun; and to consider mining outer space and the deep sea for critical minerals.
Instead of clinging to the old rules-based order, Europe should lead an international effort to reform it, the document will say.
“The EU should actively and with a coherent approach shape the discussion about a new rule-based global order and a reform of multilateralism,” the draft reads, singling out the U.N. and the WTO, the Geneva-based trade club, as key institutions of focus.
The bloc also shouldn’t shy away from forming “new alliances based on common interests,” it advises.
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