Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s special election on Tuesday, is being predicted by pundits to be victorious and fill late U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly’s seat—a result that would narrow House Speaker Mike Johnson‘s already razor-thin GOP majority and complicate the chamber’s ability to pass party-line measures.
“We feel good,” Walkinshaw told Newsweek via phone on Monday. “We feel like we’ve run a strong campaign, [there’s] a lot of energy. We’ve had huge getting-out-the-vote rallies over the weekend and knocked on more than 5,000 doors just this weekend, getting a great response from voters.”
Newsweek reached out to Johnson’s office via email for comment.
Why It Matters
The anticipated Democratic pickup in the Virginia special election is significant because the House’s current balance leaves Johnson with very little room for defections on party-line votes. Each vacancy or special election outcome could change how easily or how difficult it will be for the GOP to advance its agenda, including stopgap funding measures ahead of a pending government funding deadline at the end of September.
The current House makeup includes 431 seated members, with Republicans holding 219 seats and Democrats holding 212. A Walkinshaw victory would shrink the number of defections Johnson and his party could afford to two rather than the current three.
This will also be the first special election held since Congress passed President Donald Trump‘s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, essentially starting a countdown of massive campaigning for both parties’ members ahead of the 2026 midterms.
What To Know
Walkinshaw faces off against Republican Stewart Whitson, who has focused his platform on improving education and culture war issues like keeping males and females separate in athletics.
If elected, Walkinshaw, 42, would be no stranger to the workings of the federal government as he was born and raised in Northern Virginia and served for about 11 years as chief of staff to Connolly.
Connolly, 75, served in Congress from 2009 to May 2025 and represented Virginia’s 11th Congressional District. He died months after being diagnosed with esophageal cancer. In April 2025, he stepped down from the House Oversight Committee and said he would not seek reelection in the 2026 midterm elections.
According to Virginia Public Radio, the 11th congressional district is one of the most lopsided in the state where Democrats have a more than 30-point advantage.
The House also faces multiple additional vacancies caused by the deaths of Democratic Representatives Raúl Grijalva (Arizona) and Sylvester Turner (Texas), and the resignation of GOP Representative Mark Green (Tennessee).
Voters Will ‘Send a Powerful Message’
Walkinshaw has represented the Braddock District on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors since being elected in 2019. Once Connolly announced his intention to leave office, Walkinshaw jumped into the political arena in May to succeed him.
In a phone conversation with Newsweek on Monday, Walkinshaw said he felt confident about his chances.
He said he plans to meet voters from 6 a.m. Tuesday all the way to when polls close at 7 p.m.
Asked about how his relationship with Connolly shaped his decision to enter the fray, Walkinshaw said his experience in local government coupled with his knowledge of how to traverse federal office has assured voters he is “prepared to go to bat for them on day one.”
“I think right now our community in Northern Virginia and Fairfax is uniquely under attack by the Trump administration,” Walkinshaw said. “The DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] job cuts are impacting federal workers and federal contractors, including a lot of small businesses here.
“So, over the course of this campaign, I’ve felt that voters are looking for someone who’s not just willing to fight for them but has the experience to know how to do it and to do it effectively—both in the short term and over the long term.”
With the slim GOP majority and this being the first special election since the Trump administration’s major tax-and-spend legislation, Walkinshaw expects an enthusiastic voter base to turn out.
“It’s the first opportunity voters in the country will have to express their views on that so-called Big Beautiful Bill, so I think a strong turnout and a strong margin will send a powerful message across the country that Virginians are rejecting the Trump administration’s policies and approach.
“In 2017, in Virginia’s elections, the strong Democratic performance was an indicator of what then happened in 2018. And I think this election on Tuesday gives us the opportunity to generate momentum, build momentum for the November elections and then heading into the midterms in 2026.”
A slimmer GOP majority could also affect efforts to authorize new investigations, attach controversial policy riders to must-pass legislation like the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and respond to demands from Trump on issues including funding for Washington priorities, The Hill reported.
What People Are Saying
Republican candidate Stewart Whitson on Facebook on September 6: “Honored to have the support of Glenn Youngkin & Winsome Earle-Sears! Their message is clear: Virginia’s future is on the line. Let’s bring the energy to the polls on Sept 9!”
What Happens Next?
Congress faces a crowded calendar that could test the slimmer GOP margin—a September 30 government funding deadline, a September 23 special election in Arizona for Grijalva’s seat, and a November 4 special election in Houston for the seat in Turner’s district.
Republicans are hoping for a favorable special election in Green’s Tennessee seat on December 2, where Trump carried the district by 22 points in 2024.
The post Mike Johnson’s Slim House GOP Majority Expected to Shrink This Week appeared first on Newsweek.
