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When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many experts predicted Kyiv’s quick fall. When Ukraine pushed back overextended Russian forces, the same experts confidently said that Russia’s mass — a population almost four times larger than Ukraine — would certainly grind Ukraine down. Triumph for Putin was inevitable. But, an odd thing happened on the way to Russia’s victory parade: Ukraine is outfighting Russia.
Why is that? A big factor comes out of the grinding trenches of Ukraine, where a Russian war blogger known as “Atomic Cherry” recently laid bare a stark truth about Moscow’s persistent military woes. As translated and analyzed by an OSINT enthusiast, the blogger laments how Ukraine’s forces have outmaneuvered Russia’s rigid, Soviet-style bureaucracy in the drone war.
Ukrainian commanders, he notes, have spun up alternative structures to pull resources from the traditional military to innovate rapidly. Meanwhile, Russia’s monolithic Air Force and Navy fumble with technologies that should be in their wheelhouse, like unmanned aerial vehicles and naval drones. The result? Ukraine’s loose system fosters flexibility, while Russia’s top-down control stifles it.
The blogger doesn’t name it, but he’s describing the essence of Colonel John Boyd’s OODA Loop theory — Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. This cycle, in which speed in processing information and adapting trumps sheer firepower, has been America’s edge in warfare for decades.
I know this firsthand. In 1987, as a 24-year-old Reagan appointee in the Pentagon, I received the full Boyd briefing, alongside two or three other men in a brownstone two blocks east of Union Station in Washington, D.C. Boyd, the maverick fighter pilot turned strategist, hammered home how out-cycling the enemy — getting inside their decision loop — wins battles. His ideas reshaped U.S. military doctrine, from the Gulf War to today.
In Ukraine, this plays out vividly. Russian forces can observe emerging threats, but they then orient slowly, bogged down by layers of approval. Ukrainians, however, decide and act swiftly, often outsourcing innovations to special ops or civilian-military hybrids. This adaptability has turned the tide in key domains — from the sea to the air. Ukrainian drone boats have humbled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet while long-range drones execute devastating deep strikes on Russian refineries and warehouses.
The implications for modern warfare are profound, especially as drones and AI supercharge the battlefield. These technologies compress the OODA Loop to seconds, demanding not just superior hardware, but cultures that empower independent command.
Here, Malcolm Gladwell’s insights in “Outliers” and “The Tipping Point” are instructive. Gladwell explores how cultural legacies shape behavior — high-power-distance societies like Russia or China prioritize hierarchy, discouraging junior officers from improvising. In contrast, low-power-distance Western cultures, rooted in individualism, encourage initiative. America’s all-volunteer force thrives on this, training NCOs and officers to seize opportunities without waiting for orders from afar.
Yet even the West isn’t immune to pitfalls. The communications revolution — satellites, real-time video feeds — has enabled the White House to micromanage commanders, slowing our loop. We saw this in Afghanistan and Iraq, where political second-guessing eroded battlefield agility. President Trump is remedying this by slashing the bloated National Security Council staff, devolving power back to the field. It’s a smart move, restoring the decentralized ethos Boyd championed. Lawyers — both military and civilian — are a problem as well. Victory doesn’t emerge from a legal brief and the pace of deliberative law is ill-suited to the battlefield.
Now, pivot to the big threat: China. Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army mirrors Russia’s rigidity, with Communist Party oversight ensuring loyalty over innovation. But don’t underestimate them. China leads in drone swarms and AI-driven warfare, pouring billions into hypersonics and unmanned systems. In a Taiwan scenario, their massed forces could overwhelm regional defenses. The U.S. must double down on OODA superiority. We must invest in AI that augments human decision-making, not replaces it; increase the pace of exercises emphasizing rapid adaptation and culturally reinforce independent thinking in our ranks.
Drones and AI aren’t just tools — they’re force multipliers for the side that cycles fastest. Ukraine’s success against a larger foe proves it. Against China, we’ll need more than cash, ammunition and spare parts — we’ll need Boyd’s spirit. We must cut the red tape that hampers innovation.
The OODA Loop remains America and the West’s secret weapon. As Boyd warned, victory goes to the agile, not the arrogant. In an era of hypersonic threats and autonomous swarms, let’s ensure we’re the ones inside the enemy’s loop — before they get inside ours.
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