While an American military attack on Venezuela is considered unlikely, escalating tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro have cast light on the disparities between the two countries’ militaries.
Trump has warned that planes sent by Caracas will be downed if they threaten the U.S., and the Pentagon has decried the “highly provocative” deployment of Venezuelan aircraft near a U.S. Navy vessel in international waters.
Following the deployment of U.S. naval vessels and other military assets in the Caribbean, Trump said a strike on a jet boat belonging to Tren de Aragua, a cartel linked to Maduro, had killed 11 “narcoterrorists.”
While Maduro has said his country is ready for “armed struggle in defense of the national territory” in the event of a U.S. attack, the American military dwarfs Venezuela’s in equipment and budget.
Newsweek has contacted the Pentagon about the latest developments regarding the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean.
Why It Matters
The U.S. government has rejected Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela following disputed elections last year. The Trump administration has also classified Tren de Aragua, which it accuses Maduro of controlling, as a foreign terrorist organization.
Washington and Caracas exchanged warnings following a Trump-ordered strike on a boat allegedly tied to the Tren de Aragua gang. As the U.S. increases its presence in the Caribbean, concerns have grown about further military escalation.
What To Know
Venezuela’s military is numerically and technologically outmatched by the U.S., according to publicly available data.
The U.S. has over 13,000 aircraft compared with the South American nation’s 229, which includes Russian Su-30s, Iranian drones and aging U.S.-made F-16s from the 1980s.
From Russia, Caracas bought 23 fighter jets, eight helicopters, 12 anti-aircraft missiles and 44 surface-to-air missile systems between 2006 and 2011, according to Evan Ellis of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute.
Ellis told Agence France-Press that Venezuela’s armed forces did not train collectively to use all these land, air and sea elements, which complicated the command of a complex operation.
Maduro has said he can draw upon a force of 8 million Venezuelans, but the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates much lower figures: 123,000 soldiers, 8,000 reservists and 220,000 people forming a civilian arm of the military.
By contrast, the U.S. has over 1.3 million active military personnel and about 800,000 reserve personnel. In any case, Ellis said, the Venezuelan military had high levels of desertion and low recruitment rates, and “morale is far below what is expected for a conflict.”
Another stark difference between the countries is in military spending. Venezuela’s was around $4 billion in 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, down from $6.2 billion a decade earlier.
This is a fraction of the $895 billion defense budget of the U.S., per the statistics website Global Firepower.
Trump has continued with his pledge to focus on military might against Maduro in his crackdown on groups transporting narcotics into the U.S. The U.S. has ordered an additional 10 F-35 fighter jets to a Puerto Rico airfield to conduct operations against drug cartels, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon told Newsweek on Thursday that there was an enhanced U.S. force presence in the United States Southern Command area of responsibility.
This includes the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group/22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit and the cruiser USS Lake Erie joining the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Jason Dunham, USS Gravely and USS Sampson, which are already there.
These “will bolster U.S. capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity” of the U.S., the statement added.
What People Are Saying
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro: “I respect Trump. None of the differences we’ve had can lead to a military conflict.”
U.S. President Donald Trump said regarding Venezuelan aircraft: “If they do put us in a dangerous position, they’ll be shot down.”
What Happens Next
Despite denials by Caracas, the Trump administration has continued to link Maduro’s government to narcotics trafficking and is considering further strikes, including attacking suspected drug cartel targets inside Venezuela, CNN reported.
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