The “coalition of the willing” is ready to protect peace, should it arrive, in Ukraine.
That’s the message President Emmanuel Macron of France wants to deliver with more than 30 other heads of state and government, including President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, on Thursday, when they are expected to join, many of them virtually, a meeting in Paris.
After weeks of technical meetings between military representatives of the countries known as the coalition of the willing, the political leaders will review detailed options to secure any cease-fire or peace deal, and present enough contributions to show a serious, initial commitment to the plans, according to three highly placed French diplomats who spoke anonymously to discuss high-level matters.
“Europe is stepping up for the first time with this level of commitment and intensity, because the security of Ukraine and of Ukrainians, today and tomorrow, is also ours and Europe’s,” Mr. Macron, with Mr. Zelensky at his side, told the press on Wednesday night.
While the message might comfort Mr. Zelensky, it is aimed at President Trump, who has made clear his ambitions to end the three-year war in Ukraine, but delivered conflicting statements on who is to blame for the Russian invasion and how it might be settled.
“Europeans want to show that they’re doing their homework, that they are able to provide real security capabilities to Ukraine, something that would make a difference after a potential cease-fire,” said Martin Quencez, the director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund. “But perhaps more importantly, it is a message to the United States.”
The questions will be whether the plan is detailed enough, the commitments are firm enough and the coalition is united enough to persuade Mr. Trump not only to increase his support for Ukraine in the event of an end to the war, but also to put real pressure on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to end the invasion.
The Europeans have been working feverishly to bring Mr. Trump back on their side since he came to power, frayed longstanding alliances, signaled he would retreat from America’s traditional security role in Europe and proceeded with peace talks with Russia — without Ukraine or Europe at the table.
Last month, Mr. Trump met with Mr. Putin in Alaska, ending Russia’s status as a pariah state. While Mr. Trump entered the meeting speaking of a cease-fire and stark economic penalties against Russia if it didn’t end the war, he left with a Russian blueprint for a large-scale peace agreement that would require Kyiv to cede territory it controls to Moscow.
Three days later, Mr. Macron and other European leaders rushed to Washington with Mr. Zelensky, in a frantic effort to redirect the ship.
They emerged from the meeting with Mr. Trump with promises that the United States would take part in some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, which would be led by the Europeans and would not include American troops on the ground in Ukraine. The leaders left with the task of hammering out what that security guarantee would be, two of the French diplomats said.
Thursday’s gathering in Paris is meant, in essence, to deliver that homework.
Afterward, “we can engage even more intensely, also with the American side, to see what they want to deliver in terms of their participation,” Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said on Wednesday,
European militaries have been working on plans for a “reassurance force” to be stationed far from the front or cease-fire lines. According to Mr. Macron’s office, those plans are fairly detailed, with enough concrete commitments from partner countries to be convincing.
The plans were presented to defense ministers on Wednesday, and will be discussed by country leaders on Thursday.
Official announcements about particular contributions are expected over time, not immediately.
But major European countries including Germany, Poland and Italy have, like Washington, ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. The Germans are less optimistic than the French, saying that much remains to be discussed.
The exact nature of a force will depend on whether there is a settlement at all, what the terms of any settlement are and whether Russia agrees to have European and NATO-country troops on the ground in Ukraine or not, the Germans say.
Europeans agree that the first and most important line of defense against a potential reinvasion by Russia is a strengthened Ukrainian military, nearly a million strong. A crucial part of the plan is to invest massively in that force, filling any holes that appear, including much-needed long-range missiles and air defense capabilities. That is Ukraine’s first and main condition for any potential cease-fire, Mr. Zelensky told reporters on Friday.
The reassurance force would be a second-stage deterrent, large enough to dissuade the Russians but not so large as to seem to present a threat to Moscow.
But Europeans see the Americans as a key third plank to the security plan. The Russians have to know that if they attacked again, they would contend with the United States, said an official from the French president’s office.
Exactly what that means is unclear. So far, European officials have said that the United States has agreed in principle only to continue providing intelligence, satellite and airborne oversight and to help with command and control of any such post-settlement force.
But since Mr. Putin met with Mr. Trump in Alaska, Russia has increased its bombing campaign in Ukraine, and Mr. Putin has rejected any quick meeting with Mr. Zelensky, European diplomats point out.
They are hoping Mr. Trump notes the difference in behavior and rewards Ukraine appropriately.
“Part of this is to say, look, we are building a force that will allow this peace that you are negotiating, Mr. President, to survive,” said Mr. Quencez, the analyst.
To date, only France, Britain and tiny Estonia have publicly indicated they could deploy troops in a postwar Ukraine. For most European countries, the prospect of opening themselves up to conflict with Russia is terribly sensitive and raises questions of whether Washington would really have their back militarily if NATO-country troops were attacked.
“No one is talking about ground troops in Ukraine at this point,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany this week. In a sign of his low expectations for any outcome from the gathering, he was not planning to come to Paris in person, but intended to take part in the meeting by video link.
“I’m mentally prepared for this war to last a long time,” Mr. Merz said. “We’re trying to end it as quickly as possible, but certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s surrender.”
Germany is considering moving some of its troops who train Ukrainians to Poland, but that would require negotiations with NATO and a new mandate from the German Parliament, a senior European official said.
The Ukrainians see little defensive advantage in a small European contingent, and do not trust the idea of a “tripwire force” that would set off a larger European response should Russia invade again.
“I don’t remember any discussion here where anyone would believe the Europeans would send their armies to fight for Ukraine,” said Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a research group in Kyiv.
Military analysts have said that Ukraine would welcome a European role in peacekeeping but not rely on it. That might include air policing missions over western Ukraine flown by European pilots.
Ukrainian analysts have also pointed out that European soldiers could prove useful if deployed in western Ukraine as a justification for allies to protect the airspace above them.
All the meetings and plans are predicated on the condition of an end to the war, which at this point remains illusory.
“The question is now whether the Americans are willing or able to force Russia to accept any cease-fire guarantees,” said Mr. Skrypchenko. “Otherwise, it’s just a waste of time.”
Reporting contributed by Jim Tankersley in Berlin and Andrew E. Kramer in Kyiv.
Catherine Porter is an international reporter for The Times, covering France. She is based in Paris.
Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe and is based in Berlin. He has reported from over 120 countries, including Thailand, France, Israel, Germany and the former Soviet Union.
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