appeared alongside and at a grand military parade through Beijing on Wednesday. It underlines the growing influence of an economic and security bloc that has ambitions of facing down what it claims as US-led imperialism.
, were calculated to communicate a message of solidarity in the face of foreign sanctions and other pressures, notably on trade, and that the three autocratic regimes are
Analysts point out, however, that the three leaders have many diverging policy priorities at home and abroad and suggest that the three-way alliance may be one primarily of convenience, with the smaller and even something of a wild card.
Playing Moscow, Beijing against each other
“Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, was the founder of the North Korean state and famous for playing Beijing off against Moscow back in the 1970s and ’80s as he sought to get the very best deals for his regime,” said Dan Pinkston, a professor of international relations at the Seoul campus of Troy University.
“Kim is delighted to have been invited to attend the parade to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat because it shows he is at the stage of being accepted as an equal partner,” he told DW.
“Kim has done a lot for Putin, sending troops for the war in Ukraine and providing weapons and munitions, so he clearly believes he should get some reciprocity. He also wants greater freedom from Beijing because his country has been so reliant on China for so long,” he added.
“It has come to the point that he resents China, he wants to diversify, which is prudent from Kim’s point of view, but worrying to Xi.”
North Korean economy grows
And being alongside Xi and Putin in Beijing is also an opportunity for Kim to play the two powers off against each other, the expert said.
“China does not want North Korea to get too close to Russia,” Pinkston pointed out, because Beijing has been Pyongyang’s closest ally since the 1950-53 Korean War and was able for much of that time to rein in the regime’s most aggressive impulses out of concern for China’s own security.
Kim could, however, indicate to Xi that he is moving closer to Putin, forcing the Chinese leader to offer something else to retain a degree of influence.
And Pyongyang seems to have reaped clear economic benefits from its security and trade ties with Moscow.
The Bank of Korea (BOK), the central bank in Seoul, reported on August 29 that the . Exports rose 10.8%, with the mining and manufacturing sectors seeing the largest growth, fueled by “expanded cooperation with Russia,” the BOK said.
That degree of economic development can help to fund the North’s ongoing development of nuclear warheads and advanced missiles while simultaneously boosting Kim’s own standing among the population.
Kim will also be gambling on Putin needing more North Korean troops to replace the Russian soldiers lost on the battlefields of Ukraine, keeping the pipeline of fuel and other goods and services flowing in the other direction.
Pinkston said that while Xi, Kim and Putin are united in their dislike for the US, the West in general and human rights, the rule of law and democracy, each of these leaders will “try to exploit the three-way relationship for their own advantage.”
But Choo Jae-woo, a professor of foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, suggests there is cause for a degree of optimism as a result of the three-way meeting.
“This meeting is certainly very symbolic because it projects solidarity on security, but I believe we are seeing a slight change in US trade policy towards China, which will have a trickle-down effect on Russia and North Korea,” he underscored.
Moving closer on trade
Choo anticipates that is about to relax the he has imposed on China, which has proved damaging to both the US and Chinese economies, and there are signs that he is hoping to visit Xi in Beijing in the coming months. Trump has also stated that he is willing to meet Kim.
“I believe both China and North Korea feel that it is time to get closer on non-security issues, to focus on their common trade and economic needs and benefit from a better relationship with the Trump administration,” he said.
Even if the US remains hesitant to go that far, Choo said China is likely to identify North Korea as a member of the “” nations and therefore eligible to receive greater economic assistance from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which brings together 10 full member states and 17 partner nations to promote political and economic cooperation.
“Kim will welcome that,” he said. “Joining the SCO will align North Korea’s economic interests with the other member states and provide access to vast resources.”
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
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