The United States is in the “second stage” of a transition from being religious to secular, a study shows.
This “second stage” refers to when “the importance of religion declines in people’s personal lives,” according to the paper “The Three Stages of Religious Decline Around the World.”
The study was published in the academic journal Nature Communications in August, written by religious sociology professor Jörg Stolz and psychology professor Jean-Philippe Antonietti of the University of Lausanne, in Switzerland, sociology professor Nan Dirk de Graaf of the University of Oxford, in England, and the Pew Research Center’s demographer Conrad Hackett.
Newsweek has contacted the authors via email for comment.
Why It Matters
How Americans relate to religion affects voting, education, social services and civic organizations.
Declines in regular worship and denominational belonging can reshape community networks that historically have been tied to charity, schooling and local politics. It can also have far-reaching effects on society-determining factors, such as birth rates.
The proportion of non-religious people in America has long been growing – Newsweek previously created a map showing where in the country this is happening most.
In April, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to make America “more religious.”
What To Know
The study found that religion tends to decline, with secular generations replacing religious ones, in the following three steps:
- People participate in worship services less often
- The importance of religion declines in people’s personal lives
- Belonging to a religion becomes less common
The authors refer to this as “Participation-Importance-Belonging (P-I-B).”
“In this sequence, generations first shed aspects of religion that require more time and resources,” Pew author Hackett wrote in a summary of the study on Tuesday. “People are slower to shed religious identity, which is not necessarily as burdensome.”
In the second stage, where the United States currently is, “generations differ in their religious participation, importance and belonging,” Hackett said.
In the U.S., younger people are 15 percentage points less likely to attend services than their elders, and they are 29 percent less likely to say religion is important in their lives.
Younger people are also 45 percent less likely to say they belong to a religion, according to the study, which used Pew Research Center data from surveys conducted in 111 countries and territories between 2008 and 2023.
Comparatively, many African countries are in stage one, while many nations across Europe are in stage three.
In these third-stage countries, the majority of the elderly might still be religiously affiliated, but “younger adults are less likely to identify with any religion.”
The authors added that when a country starts its secular transition can influence whether their P-I-B model applies.
They also disclaim that there are several exceptions to their model, including Eastern European post-communist countries with Orthodox or Muslim majorities, which have seen nationalist religious revivals following the suppression of religion under Soviet control.
What People Are Saying
Study author Conrad Hackett wrote: “Countries with different religious backgrounds tend to be at different stages of the secular transition. Among countries in the medium or late stage, the largest religion is typically Christianity or Buddhism.”
He added: “This secular transition isn’t completely uniform, and it may not be inevitable everywhere.”
Pew Research Center’s Religion and Public Life’s research associate Patricia Tevington told Newsweek: “Data sources show that the share of Americans who are not affiliated with a religion has been increasing for several decades and has been well underway since at least the 1990s.”
President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social in April: “We are, together, going to make America bigger, better, stronger, wealthier, healthier, and more religious, than it has ever been before!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!”
What Happens Next
Researchers say the secular transition is long‑running and generational, not a sudden shift. The Nature analysis suggests the full transition can play out over centuries and that countries occupy different positions on the P‑I‑B sequence at different times.
In the U.S., policy makers, religious groups and civic organizations should expect gradual shifts in networks historically anchored by congregations.
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