Every Tuesday this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for every NFL game on that week’s schedule.
Ready or not, kickoff of the 2025 NFL season is just over 48 hours away. The league has recently made a habit of packing the first weekend of the season with great matchups, and Week 1 of the 2025 campaign is no exception.
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
Cowboys at Eagles (-8.5) — Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Cowboys +8.5
Philly blew out Dallas twice last year with Cooper Rush under center for the Cowboys.
With a healthy Dak Prescott — who has a career record of 9-4 vs. the Eagles, including 4-1 in his last five — and a talented second receiver (George Pickens) alongside CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys should be able to score enough to cover, even if they have to rally in garbage time to get it done.
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers* — Friday, 8 p.m. (YouTube TV)
*Neutral site: Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil
Pick: Chiefs -3
The Chargers lost one of their top players, OT Rashawn Slater, in training camp, and they have a lot of questions to answer about their ability to beat good teams. Justin Herbert and Co. went 11-6 in 2024, with two close losses to Kansas City, but seven of their wins came against teams that finished 5-12 or worse.
With that in mind, I’ll take the Chiefs to cover.
Giants at Commanders (-5.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Giants +5.5
The Giants went just 3-14 a year ago, but their two losses to the Commanders came by a combined eight points.
The loaded New York D-line might not be good enough for New York to singlehandedly win many games this season, but don’t be suprised if that unit consistently keeps the Giants competitive, starting this weekend in Washington.
Bengals (-5.5) at Browns — Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bengals -5.5
Betting on the Bengals in Week 1 has been disastrous in recent years. Surely I’ve learned my lesson on this team, which is visiting a division rival this weekend, right?
Wrong. For better or worse, I’m banking on the Bengals looking good in Week 1 for a change. It helps that on paper, the Browns look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Steelers (-3) at Jets — Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Steelers -3
Do I get to skip any games? If I could, this is one I’d stay away from. It’s hard to know what to expect from either of these teams, but I have to pick one, I like the Mike Tomlin/Aaron Rodgers coach/QB combo for Pittsburgh more than New York’s Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields.
Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints — Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Cardinals -6.5
In Week 1, there probably aren’t many teams that should be laying a touchdown on the road, but the Saints look like they’re in for a very long season. I’ll roll the dice on Kyler Murray and Arizona getting a big win on the road over Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
Panthers at Jaguars (-3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Both these teams have a ton of questions to answer. Right now, I’m much lower on the Panthers offense following the Adam Thielen trade and Jalen Coker’s injury than I was a few weeks ago. The Jags have some question marks of their own, but I’m going Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville to play well in the first game of the Liam Coen era.
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Falcons — Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Taking the Bucs to win on the road is a risk, especially after they were swept by the Falcons in 2024, but the loss of not only RT Kaleb McGary, but his backup, Storm Norton, is a big deal for Atlanta.
I think that will allow Tampa to avoid a third straight loss to its division rival.
Dolphins at Colts (-1.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Colts -1.5
The vibes are not great in either Miami or Indianapolis right now, but I expect Shane Steichen to coax just enough offense out of Daniel Jones for an ugly Week 1 victory.
The Dolphins are expected to have issues on the offensive line, RB De’Von Achane and WR Tyreek Hill are both dealing with injuries, and the Miami secondary has already lost multiple key pieces for the season.
Raiders at Patriots (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Raiders +2.5
I expect the Patriots to be solid in Year 2 with Drake Maye at the helm, but the Raiders should also be frisky after upgrading at both head coach (Pete Carroll) and quarterback (Geno Smith).
This one feels like a coin flip, but I’ll take the veteran QB for Vegas to lead the Raiders to a slight road upset.
Titans at Broncos (-7.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Titans +7.5
Though No. 1 pick Cam Ward has not taken an NFL snap yet, he gives the Titans an immediate, substantial upgrade at QB from Will Levis/Mason Rudolph, and I expect him to keep Tennessee in what should be a low-scoring game from start to finish.
49ers (-2.5) at Seahawks — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Seattle’s defense was excellent late last year, and I expect that unit to surprise some people in 2025, starting on Sunday vs. the 49ers. San Francisco should have WR Jauan Jennings for this game, but the receiver position is still a question mark as Brandon Aiyuk remains sidelined.
The last time these teams met, Seattle won 20-17 on the road in Week 11 last fall, and I like the Seahawks to make it two in a row over the Niners this weekend.
Texans at Rams (-2.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Texans +2.5
Both these teams have concerns along their O-lines, but the outstanding Houston pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will be able to cause more problems for 37-year-old Matthew Stafford than the Rams’ underrated front will give CJ Stroud.
Lions at Packers (-2.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Packers -2.5
I was probably going to take Green Bay at home in this game before the blockbuster Micah Parsons trade the Packers pulled off last week.
With Parsons filling one of this team’s biggest positions of need, I love Green Bay’s chances of starting out hot against a Lions team that is A) breaking in multiple new starters on the offensive line and B) adjusting to offseason changes at both offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator.
Ravens at Bills (-1.5) — Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Bills -1.5
Buffalo did not lose a home game a year ago, and the Bills responded to an early-season road loss at Baltimore with a memorable home win over the Ravens in the playoffs.
Baltimore might be the better overall team this year. But on Sunday night, I like Josh Allen and Co. to stay hot at home. Last year, the Bills won nine of their last 10 meaningful regular-season contests before resting their starters in a Week 18 loss to Joe Milton and the Patriots.
Vikings (-1.5) at Bears — Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Who do we like more: Vikings QB JJ McCarthy in his first start on the road, or Caleb Williams — in his first game under new Bears head coach Ben Johnson — vs. the Vikings’ imposing front seven?
That’s a tough question to answer, but with WR Jordan Addison suspended and Jalen Nailor questionable with a hand injury, I expect McCarthy and the Vikes to struggle against a solid Bears defense.
I’m not counting on Williams and the Bears to light up the scoreboard in Johnson’s debut, but I do think they’ll find a way to win a close, low-scoring battle at home.
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