Gavin Newsom‘s polling surge has reached a major milestone as he is now tied with Kamala Harris in the race to win the 2028 Democratic primary.
According to non-partisan group Political Polls’ analysis of polling averages, the California Governor is now tied with the former Vice President and 2024 presidential candidate in a hypothetical match up.
Why It Matters
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will be able to set a new direction for the party and hold a lot of responsibility for healing rifts between moderates and progressives, and beating the Republicans in 2028.
While Newsom has not formally announced his candidacy in the 2028 Democratic primaries, he has not ruled it out and pundits have suggested he has a good shot at leading the Democratic Party into the next election.
He has also delivered a number of speeches around the country and he has been among the leading candidates in most polls of the 2028 primary. He has also trolled President Donald Trump on social media lately, which has boosted his profile.
What To Know
Political Polls aggregated eight polls from leading pollsters including Emerson, Morning Consult and Echelon Insight to get to its results.
It comes after Newsom has enjoyed a number of positive polls in recent months. According to an August poll by POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab, the governor leads Harris 25 percent to 19 percent among the state’s registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents in a 2028 presidential primary.
And according to online betting market Polymarket, Newsom has a 35 percent chance of winning the nomination. This is a strong lead on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York progressive who is in second place with a 10 percent chance of winning the vote. Harris has a five percent chance
Meanwhile, some members of the far-right have also suggested Newsom is a good candidate because of his genetic profile, widening his appeal.
However, an Echelon Insights poll from this month put Newsom in second place among potential Democratic candidates with 13 percent support, behind Harris with 26 percent.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K, previously said: “We are incredibly early in the presidential election cycle with campaigning proper still years down the line. But everything Gavin Newsom is doing suggests he’s serious about running in 2028.
“This started last year when he didn’t put his hat in the running once Joe Biden relinquished the Democrat nomination, and has continued through building a sizeable war chest, building his public profile beyond California through everything from the regular media round to launching his own podcast, presenting California as a bastion against presidential overreach, and now mocking Trump through memes and X posts.”
In June 2025, Newsom told the Wall Street Journal: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
What Happens Next
Candidates tend to announce their presidential runs after the midterm elections.
In this election cycle, they will take place in November 2026. With over a year until then, there is still time for Newsom, Harris and other potential Democratic candidate’s fortunes (and polling situation) to change.
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