Cristian Gherasim is an analyst and journalist based in Romania. His work has appeared in outlets including CNN, Euronews and Balkan Insight.
Over the last month, stickers bearing the blunt message “Russia is not my enemy” have appeared on shop windows, lampposts and traffic signs in cities across Romania, France and Italy — all part of Russia’s latest attempt to influence European public opinion.
The information war is intensifying in Moldova too. Sandwiched between Ukraine and the EU, the country is set to hold a parliamentary election at the end of September, and just as it was with last year’s pro-EU referendum and presidential race, it has become a battleground for democracy once more. Only this time, Russia is seeking to intrude on the democratic process and erode trust in pro-EU leadership by using proxy associations headed by fugitive oligarchs Ilan Shor and Irina Vlah.
Undeniably, what’s at stake in the upcoming vote is whether or not Moldova keeps to its European trajectory.
So far, the Watchdog Moldova think tank has identified no fewer than 910 various social media accounts, all tasked with spreading Russian propaganda. YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram and Threads are rife with content attacking the EU and Moldova’s European integration process. Not to mention the genuine support that some Moldovans have for Russia — support that’s rooted in historic, linguistic, religious and economic ties.
Last month, the country’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu similarly warned that Moscow is “orchestrating an unprecedented” campaign. Her center-right Party of Action and Solidarity pais currently leading the polls at 39 percent, with the pro-Russia Socialist party trailing at just under 15 percent. However, a sizable 30 percent of voters remain undecided — and those votes will determine whether Moldova leans West, toward the EU and democracy, or East, toward President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Remaining on the path to EU integration would drive economic development and signal to investors that the country can be trusted. Free trade and the free movement of goods, services and people would also increase job opportunities and economic growth, enticing many Moldovans to return home — over the last 30 years, the country lost about 1.5 million people out of a population of 4.3 million.
Additionally, EU membership could offer more leverage when tackling corruption. Moldova needs a drastic break with oligarchic practices — which the current government is moving to do. The likes of Shor and former Democratic Party Chairman Vladimir Plahotniuc have made oligarchic abuse infamous, after being charged in the disappearance of more than $1 billion — that’s 12.5 percent of Moldova’s GDP — from the country’s biggest banks.
A destabilized Moldova, on the other hand, would wreak havoc on the wider region. The country carries significant strategic importance for the EU, and much like Ukraine, it is a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
Europe has another reason to care too: Without Moldova, the bloc would have an even bigger refugee problem. According to the U.N., since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country has received the most Ukrainian refugees in proportion to its own population.
Plus, the EU’s border security would also benefit from closer ties with Moldova. According to Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Romania’s border with Moldova is highly prized by smugglers — think tobacco and human trafficking. And with eastern member countries, including Romania, poised to raise taxes on tobacco, the incentive to smuggle cheaper, more harmful products is expected to jump. According to Stop Contrabanda, a website monitoring contraband cigarette busts, there’s significant money being lost to this illicit trade.
A win for the pro-EU camp would assist Moldova in its struggle against Russian disinformation and help curb the Kremlin’s influence in the country. For a few years now, Moldova has been trying to overhaul its cyber defense system with assistance from the EU — an endeavor that Romania has been particularly supportive in given the close historic ties between both countries. Meanwhile, Denmark, which took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU this July, actively supports Moldova’s EU accession, and will be providing significant financial aid through the Copenhagen Pre-Accession Instrument.
So, the ball is now in Moldova’s court — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. A pro-Russia vote would immediately halt the country’s EU ambitions. And as history has shown us time and again, once Russia grabs onto something, it rarely lets go.
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