Echoing promotional tactics employed during the Great Recession from 2007-2009, a number of companies have brought back recession-focused deals and combos designed to entice cash-strapped Americans to their stores.
As CNBC reported last week, businesses from burger chains to coffee shops across from coast-to-coast have begun offering “recession specials,” viewed by some as an indicator of an imminent economic downturn, and by others as a marketing scheme designed to capitalize on contemporary economic fears.
The latter have been aroused primarily by the trade policies of the current administration, with some—including Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell—warning that the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on almost all of America’s trading partners could exacerbate underlying inflation issues and raise prices for consumers.
Experts told Newsweek that the resurgence of the “recession special”—a holdover from past financial crises—can be taken as a worrying economic signal, but also a reaction to marked declines in consumer confidence and spending.
“If you see lots of businesses rolling out these kinds of offers at once, it’s a sign they’re all responding to the same pressure: people cutting back,” Rachel Cruze, personal finance expert and co-host of The Ramsey Show, said. “It doesn’t automatically mean we’re in a recession, but it does show that consumer confidence is low and families are looking for ways to save.”
San Francisco-based burger chain Super Duper is among the companies leading this trend, having floated its “recession combo” on social media for a few months. For a “limited time” and for $10, customers are able to purchase fries, a drink and a “recession burger” at one of their 19 California locations.
“The one thing that didn’t get the inflation memo: Meet the Recession Combo, our new seasonal special,” the company posted to social media earlier this year. “Everything is going up, except this price. High vibes, lowww cost, extra delicious. At least we’re doing our part.”
Newsweek has contacted Super Duper via email and their website for comment on Thursday for comment.
CNBC highlighted other smaller businesses cashing in on the trend, including coffee shops, concert venues and bars across New York.
“The economy is not in recession, but many consumers are feeling gloomy and uncertain,” Neil Saunders, managing director at the research agency and consulting firm GlobalData Retail, told Newsweek. “They are also feeling a squeeze after a prolonged period of inflation. There is a definite mood of bargain hunting and trying to maximize bang for your buck.”
Several pieces of recent data exhibit what Saunders describes as the “gloomy” consumer. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.4 in August, down from 98.7 in July and further below the 100-point threshold indicating broad pessimism among shoppers.
“Consumer confidence numbers have been dropping, and you can see the ripple effects,” Cruze told Newsweek. “More people are swapping cheaper brands at the grocery store, cutting back on dining out, and leaning on discount retailers.”
She added: “Those are all signs that households are feeling stretched. And while these specials might feel lighthearted, they’re really pointing to the fact that families are trying to make their money go further.”
Recession Indicator or Marketing Ploy?
While there are solid signs that consumers are feeling the pinch, others believe the return of the recession special could be an attempt to angle at the cash-conscious consumer in a—perhaps ill-considered—marketing gambit.
“Businesses may be trying to newsjack economic risks and labor market concerns by offering ‘recession specials’ to boost sales,” economist Jason Schenker told Newsweek. “But that isn’t necessarily a sign of imminent recession. It may just be a marketing ploy.
“As Freud said, ‘sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.’”
“On one hand, businesses don’t create recession specials unless they know their customers are feeling stressed and watching every dollar,” Cruze said. “On the other hand, it’s smart marketing. Companies are positioning themselves as budget-friendly during a season when people are nervous about spending.”
But doing so could bring unintended consequences, according to Ayelet Fishbach, professor of Behavioral Science and Marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. While Fishbach appreciates the “creativity and thoughtfulness” of recession specials as an attention-grabbing marketing strategy, she warned this could backfire by drawing shoppers’ focus away from the product and toward the tough economic climate.
“The potential downside and why others might hesitate to follow is that this ad evokes fear by reminding customers of a recession, which, in theory, can undermine sales across the board,” she told Newsweek. “This could be a concern for a large chain. Why would they announce a recession?”
However, she added that the tactic could work for smaller businesses, who can more convincingly lean into the “we’re here for you” narrative.
Meanwhile, Super Duper told CNBC that the “recession burger” was not a marketing gimmick but rather a nod to the Depression-era roots of the Midwestern smash burger. The company’s vice president of operations, Ed Onas, said that expanding this into a “recession combo” was a thoughtful way to treat guests amid inflation-driven financial challenges.
“There is an element of a marketing play in here, but what they’re really trying to highlight is that they have good value options or that consumers can save some money,” Saunders told Newsweek. “There are other things that point to more frugal consumer behavior: the continued rise of off-price retailers, more consumers buying secondhand, chains like Dollar General doing well, Amazon extending its Prime Day sale to more days, and so on.”
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