Xi Jinping could hardly have scripted a more favorable moment. This weekend, the leaders of India and Russia will join him at a security summit in China — one leader pushed away by President Trump’s tariffs, the other brought out of isolation by his embrace.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have raised doubts about leaning too heavily on Washington. For President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, his red-carpet treatment in Alaska by Mr. Trump blunted Western efforts to punish him for the invasion of Ukraine.
At the center is Mr. Xi, turning America’s alienation of India into an opportunity, and finding validation for his own long alignment with Mr. Putin.
The summit of more than 20 leaders, mostly from Central Asia, followed by a military parade in Beijing showcasing China’s newest missiles and warplanes, is not just pageantry. It shows how Mr. Xi is trying to turn history, diplomacy and military might into tools for reshaping a global order that has been dominated by the United States.
“The success of Xi’s foreign policy strategy is reflected in the parade of leaders traveling to China,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously worked at the C.I.A. analyzing Chinese politics. “Indeed, Xi today probably feels more besieged by visiting heads of state than encircled by the United States and its allies and partners.”
Mr. Xi, Mr. Putin and Mr. Modi will be attending the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia, in the eastern city of Tianjin on Sunday and Monday.
On Wednesday, Mr. Xi will preside over a military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II — portraying the conflict as a triumph led by the Communist Party. (Many historians, however, believe it was the Chinese Nationalists who did most of the fighting.)
In speeches, Mr. Xi has sought to recast World War II as a struggle in which China and the Soviet Union were the decisive theaters of battle. That argument, which Mr. Putin has echoed, tries to shift claims of victory away from the West and toward China and Russia, not least because of the tens of millions of people in those countries who died. Chinese officials have also asserted that the Western allies have ignored agreements negotiated during and after the war that would have buttressed China’s territorial claim to Taiwan.
That backdrop explains the importance of military parades to Beijing and Moscow.
“Beyond martial splendor and visual reminders of these nations’ contributions to the war effort, the parades are part of an ongoing ‘memory war,’” scholars at the Brookings Institution wrote recently. “China and Russia are offering a preferred alternative history to the Western narrative of the Allied victory.”
Until recently, Beijing’s closeness to Moscow had drawn pressure from Washington. But that tension appears to have eased in part because of a warming of ties between the United States and Russia. President Trump himself lavished praise on Mr. Putin in Alaska this month and later echoed the Kremlin’s position that Ukraine needed to cede land to bring an end to the war.
Mr. Xi now appears vindicated for standing by Mr. Putin, and analysts say the leaders will use the summit in Tianjin to promote a vision of a world less dominated by the United States.
Mr. Xi can also thank the Trump administration for accelerating an easing of tensions between China and India, its biggest Asian strategic competitor. New Delhi has been frustrated by the doubling of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to a whopping 50 percent, leading to calls for a rebalancing toward China. Mr. Modi, who had previously drawn closer to the United States during the Biden administration to counter Beijing, will be visiting China for the first time in seven years when he attends the summit. (He will not attend the military parade, though, unlike Mr. Putin and the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un.)
The convergence of Mr. Putin and Mr. Modi in China, as well as leaders from dozens of other emerging economies, including Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan, contrasts with the growing discord within the U.S. alliance with European and Asian countries.
Some of those cracks were on display this month when European leaders, shut out of peace talks, felt the need to rush to Washington to persuade Mr. Trump not to cave to Russian demands over peace terms in Ukraine. Mr. Trump also ruffled feathers with an ally again this past week when he heaped praise on Mr. Kim during a meeting in the Oval Office with President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea.
Many U.S. allies in Europe and Asia view China as a formidable threat to fair trade, democracy and regional stability. The last of those concerns will be underscored by the military parade that is expected to feature new anti-ship missiles which could be deployed in a war over Taiwan.
Yet analysts say those concerns risk being overshadowed by Mr. Trump’s disruption of decades of American foreign policy.
“Despite their apprehensions over China’s conduct, some of those countries increasingly regard the United States as a greater, if not the principal, destabilizing force in the international order,” said Ali Wyne, an expert on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group.
China has tried to use Washington’s disorder to persuade countries like India to reassess their relationship with the United States. At the same time, Beijing fears Washington will pressure other countries to restrict trade with China at a time when the Chinese economy has been badly weakened by a property slump and price wars.
“Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu Feihong, the Chinese ambassador to India, wrote on X about U.S. tariffs.
At a recent seminar in New Delhi, Mr. Xu said India and China had a responsibility to take a bigger role in global leadership to push back against U.S. “hegemony and power politics.” He called the neighbors the “double engines” of economic growth in Asia, using a phrase that Mr. Modi often uses in domestic politics.
Russia, a country firmly in Beijing’s camp, needs less persuasion. Moscow has been using groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to deepen ties with China, India and other countries that have become increasingly important to its sanctions-hit economy since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in 2022.
When Mr. Putin, Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi meet in Tianjin, Russian oil is certain to come up. The Trump administration’s tariffs on India for buying Russian crude has allowed China to become an even larger buyer than it was before without facing similar consequences as India, analysts’ reports show.
More than anything, the summit and parade will allow Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi to reaffirm their close relationship, a partnership that the West has tried and largely failed to break.
China’s relations with Russia will most likely continue to be “excellent,” said Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army of China now at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Attempts by the West to drive a wedge, he added, were nothing but “wishful thinking.”
Berry Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong, and Hari Kumar from Delhi.
David Pierson covers Chinese foreign policy and China’s economic and cultural engagement with the world. He has been a journalist for more than two decades.
Mujib Mashal is the South Asia bureau chief for The Times, helping to lead coverage of India and the diverse region around it, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan.
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