“No mountain or ocean can distance people who have shared aspirations,” China’s President Xi Jinping said in July 2024, addressing leaders from fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states, and a few other nations, in Astana, Kazakhstan.
At the time, the ancient Chinese saying in Xi’s speech seemed over the top, and divorced from reality: Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, one of the SCO’s major members, wasn’t even attending the grouping’s summit, citing a parliament session – an apparent snub to the bloc long driven by Beijing and Moscow.
Yet a year later, the geopolitical landscape looks very different: As China prepares to host the annual SCO summit starting Sunday, it is expecting a fuller house than ever of leaders from the region and beyond. Modi will visit China for the first time since 2018, amid a rapprochement that began late last year but has been propelled further by United States President Donald Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods, which have forced New Delhi to seek stronger partnerships with Beijing and other players in Eurasia.
At a time when much of the world is grappling with the chaos unleashed by Trump’s tariffs and threats, analysts expect the SCO conclave to serve as a platform for Xi to project his country as a stabilising force, capable of uniting the Global South to counterbalance the West, particularly the US.
China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin told a news conference in Beijing last week that the summit would be “one of China’s most important head-of-state and home-court diplomatic events this year”.
Where is it and who’s attending?
This year’s summit is set to take place from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin, a northern Chinese city on the Bohai Sea.
Liu told reporters that the summit will gather more than 20 foreign leaders and the heads of 10 international organisations.
They include leaders of SCO member states – India’s Modi, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Krygyz President Sadyr Japarov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing, Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu are among other leaders expected to attend.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn will also attend the Summit.
Is the SCO significant?
The SCO initially began in 1996 as a security bloc, dubbed the “Shanghai Five”. It was formed by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to settle their border disputes following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But in June 2001, the group evolved into the SCO, including Uzbekistan, with headquarters in Beijing. In 2017, the group expanded to include India and Pakistan. Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024 were also added as full members.
In addition, the organisation has 14 key dialogue partners, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkiye, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Cambodia.
SCO member states account for 43 percent of the world’s population, and 23 percent – or almost a quarter – of the global economy.
But Alejandro Reyes, adjunct professor at the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that the vision and identity of the group remain unclear.
The US led most post-World War II multilateral organisations – including the United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. But the end of the Cold War and the emergence of economies such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa have led to “diversification, if you will, of multilateralism, resulting in the formation of organisations like the BRICS seeking to give a voice to the Global South”, Reyes said. “So the SCO is also one of those new multilateral organisations.”
BRICS, the acronym derived from the initials of the founding member countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, sees itself as a forum for the Global South and also discusses geopolitics, global security and trade, among other world issues.
But while the SCO emerged with a focus on regional security, the expansion of its mandate to also discuss trade and other Global South concerns means it is difficult to understand what sets the grouping apart from organisations like the BRICS, Reyes said.
Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India, agreed with Reyes and said the SCO is “still an organisation that is looking for an identity”.
“At this point of time, the identity that they seem to be working out is something around the concept of indivisible security, which means the security for one cannot come at the cost of the other,” he told Al Jazeera.
Kewalramani pointed out that the SCO’s articulation of indivisible security is, however, the complete opposite of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s vision.
“The NATO vision is bloc-based collective security. The SCO vision is that everyone’s interests should be taken into account whilst addressing global issues,” he said.
“The SCO vision is also an argument to the United States, saying, ‘Look, you are a major power. We are a major global power. You must respect our interests within at least our peripheries.’ So this is an argument of spheres of influence.”
What makes this summit especially relevant?
This year’s summit comes amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, Israel’s genocide in Gaza and continued occupation of the West Bank, security tensions in South Asia and the Asia Pacific region, and Trump’s global trade war.
With the world “clearly in deep flux”, Kewalramani said, “you’re likely to see China or Russia in particular, make the case that the world is entering an era of multipolarity and articulate indivisible security as the way forward.
“The summit is also significant because I think that there is a belief amongst many that multilateralism is facing existential threats because of the United States’ policies and that SCO countries still stand for multilateralism and not for unilateralism,” Kewalramani added.
Reyes said the significance also lies in the optics and symbolism of the summit with China as the host.
“This is a time when the US is burning bridges with almost every country. So in President Xi’s mind, it is a good time for China to position itself as a world power by showcasing it has productive relations with many countries,” he said. “China always tries to make friends where it can.”
Two days after the SCO summit ends, Beijing will on September 3 also host a major military parade to commemorate the end of World War II in Asia. Many of the leaders arriving for the SCO summit – such as Putin, Lukashenko and Subianto – are expected to stay on for the parade. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is also expected to travel to Beijing for the event, which too will be “a big part of this optic” of Xi hosting world leaders, Reyes said.
What are the SCO’s positions on key issues?
The grouping is often unable to agree on key geopolitical issues.
For instance, on Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the country has been able to get most SCO members to align with its interests, but India has attempted to play a more balanced role – seeking peace and stronger ties with Ukraine, while also buying record levels of oil from Russia.
On Thursday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on SCO members to “express their clear position” and “show that they respect the principles of international law, do not tolerate Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the killing of Ukrainian children”, at this year’s summit.
Israel’s war in Gaza and military offensives in the occupied West Bank, Lebanon and Iran have also divided the SCO.
When the group condemned Israel’s attack on Iran this year, India – which also has strong ties with Israel – refused to endorse a joint statement.
Friction also persists between India and fellow SCO member Pakistan, with New Delhi calling on the organisation to condemn cross-border terrorism, for which it blames Islamabad. In July, India demanded that the grouping condemn the April attack by gunmen in Indian-administered Kashmir, in which 26 people were killed – New Delhi has accused Islamabad of being behind the attack, a charge that Pakistan has rejected.
When the SCO – whose decisions work by consensus – did not agree to that demand, India refused to sign a joint statement after a meeting of the grouping’s defence ministers.
Why are there divisions among SCO members?
According to Kewalramani, “different countries on the platform are there for different reasons.
“For example, the Central Asian countries joined because they had security concerns and were also keen to boost economic engagement with China. For India, addressing terrorism in the region was key,” he said.
While Beijing seeks to display a united approach at this year’s summit, Reyes reiterated that symbolism is likely to trump any really meaningful deliverables at the meeting.
“I doubt that this organisation is able to get much deeper than just the symbolism of gathering as a platform for the Global South, as a platform for Russia and China to convene to present themselves as senior partners in this Eurasian landmass,” he said.
“I think what we’re going to see is more about the optics of having all these countries together amid the United States’ absence.”
What does this mean for the US?
Trump has been critical of organisations from the Global South. In the past, he has threatened to cripple BRICS with targeted tariffs against its members, calling the grouping “anti-American”.
Reyes said the SCO Summit will be watched closely by the US and could also set the tone for the Quad Summit later this year, which India is set to host.
The Quad or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue was established by India, Japan, Australia and the US in 2007 to counter China’s growing global influence in the Asia Pacific region. Over the past quarter-century, India has grown closer to the US and its allies, amid shared concerns over Beijing’s rise.
But after Washington hit New Delhi with 50 percent tariffs for importing crude oil from Russia amid the war in Ukraine, analysts expect the US to closely watch Modi’s meeting with Xi in Tianjin, scheduled for Monday.
“The US will be particularly watching the interaction between India and China, who have been trying to resolve bilateral tensions, at this year’s SCO Summit,” Reyes said.
“Currently, amid US tariffs on India and the upcoming Quad Summit, it will be interesting to see how Modi plays it,” he said.
Kewalramani cautioned against concluding that the India-US relationship was broken, even with their tensions over tariffs.
“These are mature economies who have close relationships on many fronts. The US will be watching how not only India but also Pakistan, Iran, and indeed Russia and China interact among themselves at the SCO Summit on some of the key geopolitical issues and trade,” he said.
“I’m sure the US will grasp the messages that they need to grasp from the SCO Summit. It’s good for them to watch and take lessons.”
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