A Thai court is expected to rule on Friday whether the recently suspended prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, can return to office, a decision that could usher in a new period of political instability in Thailand.
The verdict from the Constitutional Court in Bangkok comes nearly two months after it suspended Ms. Paetongtarn over allegations of ethics violations. The charges stem from a private phone conversation she had this year with the Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which fueled anger when it became public because it raised questions about her competence and loyalty.
Ms. Paetongtarn’s case is seen as an important test of her powerful family’s standing with the royalist-military establishment in Thailand, which is a constitutional monarchy. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who has long been a foil for members of the country’s old guard, is widely thought to have made a grand bargain with them that allowed him to return to Thailand in 2023, after years in exile, and essentially avoid jail time.
Now Ms. Paetongtarn, 39, who became premier last year, faces the prospect of being removed from office and barred from politics.
On June 15, she and Mr. Hun Sen had a phone call about a tense border dispute, which later in the summer exploded into deadly clashes.
Soon after the call, Mr. Hun Sen posted a recording of the discussion on social media. In it, Ms. Paetongtarn addressed Mr. Hun Sen as “uncle,” seeming to be deferential to him and critical of Thailand’s military. Demonstrations broke out in Thailand, with protesters calling for her resignation.
Ms. Paetongtarn, who is accused of acting negligently and without integrity, has denied any wrongdoing.
“I engaged in these talks with the best interests of the country and the people in mind,” she said in a statement filed to the court. “While some of my words may have been inappropriate, if viewed with fairness, it’s clear that I was focused on what was best for the public.”
Ms. Paetongtarn’s suspension had led to fears of possible military intervention in a country where coups are common. Few Thai prime ministers in recent history have completed a full four-year term without being removed by a coup, a court ruling or political pressure.
If Ms. Paetongtarn is found guilty, she would become the third member of her family to be ousted from the prime minister’s office. Mr. Thaksin’s second term was cut short by a coup in 2006. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed by the Constitutional Court in 2014, weeks before another coup. Both episodes led to huge protests.
If Ms. Paetongtarn survives, it will be a sign that the royalist-military establishment still regards Mr. Thaksin as useful, according to Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand.
But Mr. Thaksin, 76, no longer commands the public support he once did.
Thailand’s last election, in 2023, was the first this century in which a party linked to Mr. Thaksin did not win the most votes. Instead, a new, progressive party called the Move Forward Party prevailed.
The country’s old power brokers moved to block Move Forward from forming the government. Mr. Thaksin’s stunning return to Thailand was seen as evidence of his role in rejecting the people’s choice. By the time Ms. Paetongtarn was in the prime minister’s office, Move Forward had been disbanded by the Constitutional Court.
The ruling on Friday is one of a string of legal hurdles for the Shinawatras. Last week, Mr. Thaksin avoided prison time when a court dismissed a royal defamation charge against him. Next month, a court is expected to rule whether he lawfully avoided jail time — he had been convicted on charges of corruption and abuse of power — when he returned to Thailand.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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