Russia or its proxies are flying surveillance drones over routes that the United States and its allies use to ferry military supplies through eastern Germany, collecting intelligence that could be used to bolster the Kremlin’s sabotage campaign and assist its troops in Ukraine, according to U.S. and other Western officials.
U.S. and German officials have been discussing Russian sabotage efforts, including information that led to the arrest in May of three Ukrainian men accused in a Russia-linked plot, the officials said.
The Russian sabotage campaign has led to fires at warehouses in Britain, an attack against a dam in Norway, attempts to cut cables under the Baltic Sea and an array of operations intended to bring the war in Ukraine closer to the heart of Europe and to undermine support for Kyiv.
After hitting a high last year, Russian sabotage acts have fallen off significantly this year, experts and Western intelligence officials said. That is at least partly the result of heightened security in Europe, and efforts by U.S. and European intelligence services to prevent attacks.
The drop also likely reflects a swirl of diplomatic activity to negotiate an end to the fighting in Ukraine.
“The landscape is more difficult for Russians to operate,” said Seth Jones, who studies the issue for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s not unreasonable to assume the Russians are a bit more cautious now while there are negotiations.”
Mr. Jones noted in a report published in March that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled between 2022 and 2023, then tripled again between 2023 and 2024. But Mr. Jones tracked a significant drop-off in the first six months of this year, with only four incidents qualifying as sabotage or attempted sabotage by Russia.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies also said in a report this month that sabotage operations this year had declined, but that the threat remained as Europeans struggled to coordinate a response.
In written testimony to the Senate in June, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, now the head of U.S. European Command, said targeted sabotage incidents had declined this year “due to heightened public scrutiny and robust law enforcement efforts by European authorities.”
During the Biden administration, the United States provided intelligence to Europe to help push for a united front across NATO countries. The intelligence sharing has continued under the Trump administration.
U.S. spy agencies have been providing information to European governments about potential sabotage actions, according to people briefed on the discussions. That has included a warning to German intelligence officials about a plot to send explosives or incendiary devices on cargo planes transiting Germany.
The warning resulted in the arrest of the three Ukrainian nationals in Germany and Switzerland. The federal prosecutor’s office in Berlin said in a statement at the time that the plan appeared to be part of a plot to damage logistical infrastructure for commercial freight.
The devices were addressed to locations in Ukraine, but people briefed on the matter said it was not clear if those were the targets, or if the devices were intended to go off on cargo planes in Germany.
While Russia’s intelligence operations have been under ever stricter scrutiny, they have retained the ability to recruit people to carry out attacks throughout Europe, according to Western officials.
As a result, U.S. and European military officials have been increasingly concerned about the drone flights in Germany.
The flights, concentrated in the eastern German state of Thuringia, were also reported by WirtschaftsWoche, a German publication that has reported extensively on the sabotage campaign.
WirtschaftsWoche reported that Germany was building up its anti-drone systems at military bases. A spokesman for the German armed services told the publication that the drone flights near military bases were a considerable security risk.
The publication also reported that at least some of the drones were manufactured in Iran, and German intelligence officials believe at least some of the flights might have originated from ships in the Baltic Sea.
U.S. officials confirmed the flights but said they were unable to track their origin. They believe the drones have been flown by Russians or people working for Russian intelligence services.
Mr. Jones said the drone flights over supply routes were “straight-up espionage,” as Russia tries to learn what firms are manufacturing weapons for Ukraine, and how weapons are being shipped into Poland and on to Ukraine.
The drone surveillance, he said, was most likely related to battlefield intelligence meant to give the Russian army a better idea of what weaponry it would face, and when.
But Mr. Jones and Western officials said that should Russia decide to step up its sabotage operations in the future, it could use the information being collected by the drone flights.
“If at some point the Russians wanted to get more aggressive and forward leaning with that kind of intelligence collection, they know what companies are exporting and what routes are being used,” Mr. Jones said. “It would be useful if they wanted to conduct sabotage or subversive operations.”
Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades.
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