Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at sanctions on Iran’s nuclear activities, Hong Kong wrapping up its landmark national security trial, and accusations of Israel committing genocide in Gaza.
T-Minus 30 Days
The E3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—kick-started the process on Thursday of reimposing so-called snapback sanctions on Iran. According to the countries’ foreign ministers, Tehran is in breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a 2015 agreement restricting its nuclear activities.
Iran’s noncompliance is “clear and deliberate,” the ministers wrote in a joint statement. “Its nuclear programme therefore remains a clear threat to international peace and security.” Notifying the United Nations of Iran’s alleged breach begins a 30-day countdown to secure a new nuclear deal or else risk the return of sanctions. Paris and London have also requested closed U.N. Security Council consultations on Friday to discuss Iran’s breach.
The E3 nations have offered a one-time, six-month suspension of the possibility of restoring sanctions in return for three concessions: Iran must resume direct nuclear talks with the United States, provide the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) with full access to its nuclear sites, and allow the IAEA access to the nearly 400 kilograms (or roughly 881 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that Tehran already possesses.
“This measure does not signal the end of diplomacy,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot posted on X. “[W]e are determined to make the most of the 30-day period that is now opening to engage in dialogue with Iran.”
The United States also celebrated Europe’s move as an opportunity for further negotiations. “Snapback does not contradict our earnest readiness for diplomacy, it only enhances it,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term in 2018.
Iran denounced Europe’s sanctions threat on Thursday as “unjustified, illegal, and lacking any legal basis.” “Iran will respond appropriately to this unlawful and unwarranted measure,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a phone call with the E3 foreign ministers, though he did not elaborate on what Tehran’s response might be. Iran has previously warned that if snapback sanctions are restored, then it will leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a separate agreement that aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons; leaving the NPT requires three months’ advance notice.
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom first warned Iran that they could trigger snapback sanctions on Aug. 8, after Tehran suspended cooperation with the IAEA following the 12-day war with Israel in June. On Wednesday, Iran offered a small concession to Europe’s terms, allowing the IAEA to send a team of inspectors to its Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Still, experts warn that Iran is unlikely to concede to all of the E3’s demands, particularly since Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes. If snapback sanctions go into effect, then they will once again freeze Iranian assets abroad, halt global arms deals with Iran, and penalize the development of its ballistic missile program.
Such measures will also likely squeeze the country’s struggling economy. With sanctions back in place, the world will “conclude that Iran is a pariah state for the foreseeable future,” Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told FP’s Keith Johnson. Already, news of E3 snapback sanctions plummeted Iran’s rial currency to near-record lows on Thursday, trading at more than 1 million to the U.S. dollar.
Today’s Most Read
- It’s Not Too Late to Fix the U.N. by Suzanne Nossel
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- Stop Fabulating About ‘Security Guarantees’ for Ukraine by Christian Caryl
What We’re Following
Landmark trial. Hong Kong’s trial of pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai wrapped up on Thursday. The government-picked judges are expected to take several months to deliver their verdict, though nearly all cases concerning Hong Kong’s sweeping national security law end in conviction. However, the question is not whether Lai will be found guilty but rather whether Beijing decides it is better to imprison the media mogul or release him.
Lai owned the popular newspaper Apple Daily, one of the few publications in Hong Kong willing to criticize the Chinese government. In 2020, he was charged with two counts of conspiring with foreign forces and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious material, all under the national security law, which was imposed in the wake of widespread pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. Lai has since become a symbol of Hong Kong’s crackdown on political dissent, specifically pro-democracy activists.
The prosecution has argued that Lai was the “mastermind” behind the 2019 demonstrations. Lai maintains his innocence.
Accusations of genocide. A leading Palestinian human rights group published a report on Thursday accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. The 204-page report concludes that Israeli forces have conducted four of the five acts prohibited under the 1948 Genocide Convention, citing extensive evidence of Israeli actions since the war began in October 2023.
“Not even the 1948 Nakba, with its brutal killings, forced displacement, and uprooting, nor the 1956 war and the 1967 Israeli occupation of the rest of its territory, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights, can compare to the magnitude of destruction and bloodshed that Gaza is experiencing today,” said Raji Sourani, the director of the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, which published the report.
Thursday’s accusations come just one day after every member of the U.N. Security Council—apart from Israel’s closest ally, the United States—declared that the famine in Gaza was a “man-made crisis,” adding that starvation as a weapon of war is banned under international law. Last Friday, the world’s leading hunger monitor officially confirmed that famine is occurring in Gaza City and its surrounding areas.
First batch of deportees. Rwandan officials confirmed on Thursday that the United States had transferred seven migrants to Kigali in mid-August under the White House’s third-country deportation policy. Rwanda agreed this month to receive up to 250 U.S. deportees—making it one of four African countries to reach such a deal with Washington; the other three are Eswatini, South Sudan, and Uganda.
According to Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo, “Three of the individuals have expressed a desire to return to their home countries, while four wish to stay and build lives in Rwanda.” Those who settle in Rwanda will receive accommodation, workforce training, and health care, she said.
The Trump administration has come under pressure from rights activists over its deportation actions, as experts warn that sending people to countries where they face the risk of torture, abduction, or other abuses may violate international law. The government of Rwandan President Paul Kagame has been accused of crushing political dissent and cracking down on the free press. In November 2023, the U.K. Supreme Court ruled that Rwanda was not a safe third country for Britain’s own deportation scheme, though the British Parliament ultimately overruled the court’s decision.
Odds and Ends
If you read yesterday’s World Brief, then you know about the Danish media report alleging that at least three U.S. nationals tied to Trump had carried out covert influence operations in Greenland. Late on Wednesday, a White House official finally issued a response to the accusation. “We think the Danes need to calm down,” the official told CBS News while refusing to confirm if such a campaign is underway.
The post E3 Nations Begin Process to Reimpose Snapback Sanctions on Iran appeared first on Foreign Policy.
