Many Moldovans are sick of hearing these familiar descriptions of their country: A small ex-Soviet state; one of Europe’s poorest nations; a place caught between Russia and the West.
That’s not because these statements are untrue, but because over the last few years, Moldova’s government has been throwing all its weight behind efforts to update that image. They say that first and foremost, — which sits between wartorn Ukraine and EU and NATO state Romania — is a , firmly anchored toward the West.
In a way, that proposition never looked more solid than on Wednesday when three top EU leaders — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — showed up in the capital Chisinau to mark Moldova’s independence day alongside its leader Maia Sandu.
“The alternative to Europe does not exist. Without the EU, Moldova remains blocked in the past,” Sandu told citizens.
“We feel this with each bomb dropped on the country next door. Russia’s war in Ukraine shows on a daily basis that Europe means freedom and peace. Putin’s Russia means war and death.”
Election stress test
But the leaders’ visit is also testament to just how fragile Moldova’s pro-Europe pivot feels now, a few weeks out from crucial parliamentary elections which will test the governing party and may weaken its influence.
Germany’s Merz told that the fact that the country has chosen a path toward the EU cannot be “taken for granted.”
“Things could still take a different turn,” he said, pointing to the potentially “decisive” vote on the horizon.
The challenge facing Moldova’s pro-Western government is partly due to the regular ups and downs of democracy, like citizen frustration as the country deals with the economic fallout of the war next door.
Though Sandu’s pro-Europe party is still topping polls, some regions of Moldova consistently back Moscow-friendly candidates as part of the regular political process. The is also, by now, a known quantity in Moldovan politics.
But there are also less predictable powers at play in the bid to sway Moldovan voters: Like the fugitive pro-Russian tycoon Ilan Shor who is offering up to $3,000 a month to people who attend anti-government protests, according to the news agency Reuters.
Shor, who fled Moldova while appealing a conviction on bank fraud charges back in 2019, publicized the cash payment offer in an online video.
President Maia Sandu listed off a series of other on Wednesday: Election interference, illegal financing, disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, sabotage at overseas polling stations, and efforts to sow hate between communities.
Tense weeks ahead
Moscow denies involvement in , but the EU leaders gathered in Chisinau don’t buy it.
“Russia has been relentlessly trying to undermine freedom, prosperity and peace in Moldova,” Germany’s Merz said on Wednesday, warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to draw Moldova into Moscow’s “sphere of influence.”
Victoria Olari, who monitors disinformation and online trends for Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, told DW in a phone conversation she expects meddling attempts to step up over the next few weeks.
Olari, who lives in Chisinau, described the atmosphere there as “charged.” But she said there’s also a feeling of “cautious optimism mixed with tension” ahead of the elections.
“There’s a palpable sense of determination among Moldovans to safeguard their sovereignty,” she said, adding that the visit by top EU leaders “underscores the European support that many here see as a lifeline.”
EU dream, interrupted?
But that European solidarity also seems somewhat bittersweet — because Moldova’s path toward joining the EU has, for now, hit a Hungary-sized roadblock.
Moldova and Ukraine both applied to join the EU back in 2022 soon after Russia’s full scale invasion. The countries’ membership bids were synchronized as they began similar reforms to become eligible, like beefing up laws and institutions aimed at curbing corruption. Macron, Merz and Tusk all praised Moldova’s progress in their speeches on Wednesday.
But now the connection with Kyiv is proving problematic for Moldova.
With Budapest to the EU, Moldova is stuck too and officials are unable to commit to a concrete timeline for next steps.
“The door to the European Union is open,” Merz said in a message of reassurance on Wednesday. “We will do whatever we can” to advance membership talks in the autumn, he added.
But this also presents a political dilemma for EU leaders.
Break up to move on?
“The EU is loath to succumb to Hungarian blackmail and decouple the countries. Amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this risks fostering a sense of abandonment at a time when Ukrainians already feel deserted by Washington,” Amanda Paul, a senior researcher with the European Policy Centre, wrote in an analysis paper earlier this year.
Paul also had a stark warning about the risks of leaving Moldova to linger too long in the West’s waiting room.
“The EU may have little choice but to move ahead with Moldova, rather than risk the country falling under Russian influence,” she wrote in May.
That outcome, she says, would “further undermine Europe’s security and stability, including that of Ukraine.”
Edited by: M. Cavanagh
The post Stay west: EU leaders urge Moldovans to steer clear of Moscow appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
