PARIS — France’s largest opposition party, the far-right National Rally, is calling on President Emmanuel Macron to call new elections or resign after the likely impending collapse of the government next month.
“There is only one way out of this political deadlock: returning to the ballot box,” Jordan Bardella, the president of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, said in an interview with broadcaster TF1 on Tuesday.
“Emmanuel Macron must recognize this institutional paralysis that he himself has caused and either dissolve the National Assembly or, obviously, submit his resignation.”
Bardella’s comments are surprising because the party’s longtime standard-bearer, Le Pen, would be barred from running in either legislative or presidential elections in the coming months due to her embezzlement conviction in March. Le Pen has repeatedly maintained her innocence, but her political future hinges on whether an appeals court will clear her name and lift her electoral ban — a decision not expected until next summer.
Macron is unlikely to resign but is keeping his cards close to his chest. He warned his closest allies to “be ready” on Sept. 8, when centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government will likely collapse after a confidence vote, according two people who had been in direct contact with the French president and were granted anonymity to discuss these exchanges.
Bayrou shocked the country on Monday when he announced he would hold a vote to seek a green light from lawmakers over his plans to slash the 2026 French budget by nearly €44 billion to reduce next year’s budget deficit to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product, down from a targeted 5.4 percent this year.
The National Rally, the far-left France Unbowed — which is also calling for new elections and Macron’s resignation — and the center-left Socialists all said they will not support Bayrou’s plan to balance the books, effectively sealing his fate. Financial institutions and rating agencies have repeatedly urged France to rein in public spending amid concerns that the eurozone’s second largest economy could be headed toward a debt crisis.
Macron has already concluded that the government stands little chance of surviving, the two individuals told POLITICO, but it’s not yet clear whether he’s ready for new elections.
One presidential adviser POLITICO that while Macron was not “in favor” of another snap vote — a position he has reiterated in recent months — the French president “has always said that he would not deprive himself” of his constitutional power to dissolve parliament.
Polling shows the public appears to be in favor of heading back to the polls. A survey by respected pollster Elabe published Tuesday showed 69 percent of respondents backing a dissolution of the National Assembly, while a staggering 67 percent supported Macron resigning.
But new elections would be something of a double-edged sword. Macron’s surprise decision last summer to call a surprise vote in the aftermath of the National Rally’s big win in European elections left France in a state of political gridlock that prevented Bayrou and his predecessor, Michel Barnier, from passing budgets that would rein in public spending and appease France’s creditors.
Recent polling shows that a new round of election could very well yield similar — if not identical — results, once again producing a hung parliament. Such an outcome would do little to improve France’s standing in the eyes of investors, with analysts pointing to crippling instability as a major risk factor.
An uneasy calm settled on French financial markets on Wednesday, with the government’s benchmark 10-year borrowing cost steady at 3.49 percent, a mere 0.09 percentage points below Italy’s. The CAC 40 stock market index edged 0.4 percent higher, but has still fallen nearly 3 percent over the past week as the perception of political risk has strengthened.
Geoffrey Smith contributed to this report.
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