Back-to-school season is in full swing. Many students are already back in the classroom, and some are still savoring what’s left of summer while checking items off their shopping lists.
But when it comes to prices, parents and kids are in a whole new territory. It’s murky, to say the least. Some prices are higher, some are lower, and others have stayed put since last year.
Both retailers and consumers are navigating price adjustments as a new wave of tariffs as high as 50% on some imported goods went into effect earlier this month, creating even more uncertainty. Consumers currently face an overall effective tariff rate of 18.6%, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.
NBC News, working with e-commerce price tracking platform Bright Data, is tracking online prices for roughly 30 back-to-school items at Amazon, Walmart and Target to pinpoint if and when those price jumps happen. Bright Data is separately tracking its own set of more than 4,000 back-to-school items across retailers.
The price tracker can’t identify what causes prices to rise or fall, so it’s impossible to determine whether any changes reflect retailers passing along tariff expenses to shoppers. But the tool can help consumers plan their purchases at a time when goods from certain countries, such as China, or with specific components, like steel or aluminum, are disproportionately subject to steeper levies.
Both data sets showed a pattern of journals and notebooks jumping in price during the past several months. The price of a higher-end notebook from Moleskine on Amazon spiked more than 22% since NBC News first started tracking the product in early March. Meanwhile, Bright Data found that journals and notebooks across price points jumped in price nearly 100%.
An Amazon spokesperson said that price increases are not reflective of overall pricing trends and that many back-to-school items decreased in price. “We have not seen the average prices of products offered in our store change up or down meaningfully this year outside of typical fluctuations across millions of items on Amazon,” the spokesperson said.
Data from NielsenIQ (NIQ), which tracks prices at brick-and-mortar stores, found that some paper products, like index cards and graph paper, are up. The price tags on other paper products, such as filler paper and composition books, however, are down. Steve Zurek, NIQ’s vice president of advanced analytics, said some of those decreases can be attributed to promotional sales on back-to-school items.
Bright Data also found that more than 36% of the calculators it tracks saw price increases. On Walmart’s website, the price of a scientific calculator jumped 58% since NBC News started following the price in June.
Walmart said that it doesn’t control pricing for the calculator in this particular listing and that it is sold by a third-party vendor.
With kids heading back to school, it’s more than just pencils and notebooks they’ll need. New electronics, shoes, clothing and a musical instrument or helmet might be on the shopping list for extracurricular activities.
The latest government consumer inflation report showed the price index for footwear rose 0.9% between July 2024 and July 2025. The price indexes for apparel and sporting goods dropped 0.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Education and communication commodities, which includes computers and tech accessories, plunged 4.3% during the same time period.
These numbers reinforce financial experts’ assessment that consumers are not feeling the full effects of tariffs just yet.
“Price hikes may be muted, to some extent, by retailers’ aggressive early ordering to manage inventories and beat the tariff increases,” said Jennifer Timmerman, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior investment strategy analyst.
However, higher prices are likely on the horizon. Lorraine Hutchinson, a senior retail analyst at BofA Securities, said most back-to-school deliveries arrived at a 10% tariff rate, but tariffs on holiday goods will be higher.
About 90% of back-to-school shoppers said they expected prices on back-to-school items to be higher this year due to tariffs — and they planned ahead. More than two-thirds of back-to-school families started shopping in July, citing tariffs as a concern, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Despite extra caution, parents are still shelling out for the new school year. The average K-12 family anticipates spending more than $800 on back-to-school needs, down slightly from last year, according to NRF. Total spending is expected to top $39 billion, up nearly $1 billion from last year.
Walmart is the top choice among parents, according to NIQ. Nearly 80% of surveyed shoppers planned to visit Walmart, followed by 72% at Amazon and 54% at Target.
Walmart, which is known for its low prices, has been drawing more higher-income shoppers in recent months as inflation-weary consumers seek bargains.
Walmart raised its full-year earnings and sales outlook on Thursday, as its online business posted another quarter of double-digit gains. This report comes even as the company said costs are rising from higher tariffs.
Businesses continue to eat more of the tariff costs than expected — at least for now, according to the NRF.
“The last thing they want to do is lose their customers because they become the more expensive alternative,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights.
Goldman Sachs economists estimate that consumers already absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June, but that their share could rise to 67% by October.
To save on back-to-school shopping, parents can opt for store-brand products, which, according to NIQ, are on average 26% cheaper than name-brand alternatives. If you really want a name-brand item, buying secondhand can help dodge inflated prices on things like apparel, footwear and sports gear.
With lingering economic uncertainty, early shopping is likely here to stay as consumers prepare for more school-related purchases as well as the upcoming holiday season.
“Consumers today are looking for some answers and for certainty they can plan around,” Cullen said. “They know that early shopping lets them plan their season according to what they can afford.”
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