When much of the country is still sweltering in summer heat, it’s time to think about holiday travel.
Airfares are notoriously volatile and never less so than during the holidays, which are among the busiest times to fly. While market conditions that affect airlines — from fuel prices to inflation — can change from year to year, the following guidelines apply to booking holiday travel.
Track flights before buying
Start your holiday search by becoming familiar with current and average prices. Free sites like Google Flights and Hopper allow users to set alerts on specific routes, which will inform them when prices change.
Additionally, Google Flights will indicate how an airfare compares to average airfares for that time of year. The comparison site Kayak offers price forecasting that recommends booking now or waiting based on its expectations of price fluctuations.
“Airfare pricing is tied to demand and when people are booking,” said Brian Kelly, the founder of the Points Guy, a travel news site with a focus on using loyalty points and frequent flier miles. “Leverage sites like Google and Hopper to get a sense of how prices are trending.”
Price multiple itineraries
Being flexible is the best way to get a good fare, so play with your routing.
For example, consider two one-way flights on different carriers and compare them to the cost of a round-trip ticket.
In regions or cities where you have a choice of airports, check the prices of flights to and from as many as are convenient.
Buy 6 to 12 weeks ahead
The sweet spot for booking holiday tickets at their cheapest is usually six to 12 weeks in advance of the date of travel.
Airlines typically release their schedules about a year in advance at high rates that tend to attract the most inflexible travelers who just want a ticket in hand. Then airfares often fall, based on demand, until load factors are such that they start creeping up again. Timing that low can be tricky.
Most travelers “usually buy too early, thinking the early bird gets the cheap flight worm, when in reality that flight can fluctuate downwards dozens, if not hundreds of times before takeoff,” wrote Katy Nastro, a travel expert and spokeswoman at Going.com, an app for flight deals, in an email.
“To set yourself up for success, we always suggest to be like Goldilocks, buy not too early, but not too late,” she wrote.
Given the volatility of airfares and the busy holiday season, platforms differ on the exact time to act. According to Hopper, Thanksgiving prices tend to be lowest through mid-October and rise rapidly thereafter. For Christmas, prices tend to bottom out between mid-October and early November. The cheapest airfares tend to be on the holidays — Thanksgiving Day and Christmas — themselves.
The airfare booking site Skyscanner urges holiday travelers to act sooner to get the best fares.
“Aiming to book by early September will be your best chance to get a holiday travel deal,” said Laura Lindsay, the global travel trends expert at Skyscanner. “For Christmas, you may be able to hold off until mid-October, but that will depend on the popularity of the route.”
Pay with points
If you’re sitting on a pile of loyalty points or frequent flier miles, the holidays can be a good time to redeem them, especially if you book early, before the number of points required goes up.
“When cash prices go up, so, too, do prices in points and miles,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, an online platform that analyzes points pricing compared to cash to tell users if they’ve got a good deal or not.
Points Path found that the average points price on a domestic carrier for a round-trip flight outside of the holiday period was 38,000 miles. During Thanksgiving, the total points required jumps to 50,000 and over Christmas to 60,000.
While in nonholiday times, travelers may find good last-minute deals for redeeming points as airlines lower requirements to fill empty seats, the likelihood of empty seats during the holiday weeks voids that strategy.
“You want to have something booked at least 90 days in advance, if possible,” Mr. Kheel said. He added that if a price drops, you can usually cancel your existing reservation, have the points restored to your account and redeem them anew on the cheaper flight.
Plan to avoid disruptions
Don’t let price be your only consideration when booking holiday travel. Volatile late fall and winter weather and near-capacity plane loads can snarl your best-laid plans.
Account for them by flying direct if possible and avoiding the greater logistical complications that come from catching two or more flights compared to one.
Also consider flying as early in the day as possible, so that if your flight is canceled you have a better chance of making a later one.
Continue monitoring prices after booking
The job hasn’t ended once you’ve booked a ticket. Experts advise travelers to continue to monitor prices in case they drop. This might be less common during the holidays, but it pays to stay on top of developments.
With the exception of the most restrictive basic economy fares, most domestic airlines allow travelers to cancel for a refund of points or a cash credit that travelers can use to rebook in the event that a price drops.
“Constantly keep hunting,” said Mr. Kelly of the Points Guy.
The post Flying During the Holidays? Here’s How to Get the Best Deal. appeared first on New York Times.
