PARIS — France’s minority government appears likely to fall when Prime Minister François Bayrou holds a high-stakes confidence vote next month over his unpopular €43.8 billion budget squeeze.
Bayrou sent shockwaves through the French political establishment on Monday when he said that he would convene lawmakers for an extraordinary meeting on Sept. 8, two weeks before they were set to return to work
“When the house is burning or when you are about to sink, you have to acknowledge the situation,” Bayrou said. “I will not let our country sink into this risk, because it is our freedom that is at stake.”
Bayrou is gambling that lawmakers can at least agree that France’s dire financial situation needs rectifying, but the odds appear stacked against the longtime centrist. Leaders from both the far-left France Unbowed and far-right National Rally, including Marine Le Pen, have already vowed to support toppling the government.
To survive, the prime minister needs the Socialists to vote in support of his government rather than simply abstaining — which party leader Olivier Faure ruled out in an interview with Le Monde. The center-left party remains furious with Bayrou following the collapse of retirement reform talks earlier this year.
“It is obviously inconceivable that the Socialists would vote in favor of the prime minister,” Faure said.
Bayrou had been expected to face a confidence vote later in the legislative process. By calling one ahead of the French legislature’s official return to business and just two days before a nationwide shutdown set for Sept. 10, Bayrou is effectively choosing to accelerate his fate and face the risk of a government collapse head-on.
“There are moments in life when only a calculated risk can allow you to escape a more serious risk,” Bayrou said. “It is a matter of the survival of our state, the image of our nation, and each and every family.”
One ministerial adviser put a different spin on it. She was overheard saying after the press conference: “It’s better to die by suicide than suffer in agony.”
Bayrou last month unveiled aggressive spending plans for next year aimed at bringing the 2026 budget deficit down to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product and prevent a Greek-style meltdown. One government adviser, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, raised the specter of France being put under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund or the Troika, the trio of institutions that enforced austerity measures during the eurozone crisis, if nothing were done.
But Bayrou’s plans, which also slash two public holidays, sparked fury among opposition parties, some of whom vowed to bring the PM down if he forged ahead without significant changes.
Bayrou told reporters that French President Emmanuel Macron signed off on his plans after being briefed last week, but ministers were only given a heads-up minutes before the announcement. Victor Goury-Laffont and Paul de Villepin contributed to this report.
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