The chances of a cyclone forming in the Atlantic Ocean behind Tropical Storm Fernand have increased from 20 percent as of Saturday to 40 percent on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Why It Matters
The NHC was tracking the disturbance at the same time as Tropical Storm Fernand, which formed on Saturday and is the sixth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
What To Know
“Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does not appear to have a surface circulation,” the NHC said in an update on Sunday.
The system could still develop into a tropical depression within the next day or two as it tracks westward at 20 to 25 mph, moving through the Windward and Leeward Islands later on Sunday into early Monday, according to the agency.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development,” it said.
The agency reported a 40 percent chance of cyclone development through both 48 hours and seven days, a jump from Saturday when this was rated at 20 percent.
“The window for [for the disturbance] to develop is basically today into tomorrow,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys told Newsweek. “If it fails to further organize, it is not expected to develop into an organized tropical feature.”
Meanwhile, the NHC said earlier on Sunday that Tropical Storm Fernand was moving toward the north-northeast at around 15 miles per hour, a motion expected to continue “over the next day or two.”
The agency said this would then be followed by a turn to the northeast.
“On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic,” it added.
At the time it reported maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and forecast strengthening over 48 hours, although a “weakening trend” was expected by Tuesday.
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center said in a post on X, Sunday: “We are watching a tropical wave near the Windward Islands with a medium (40 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days. It is likely to bring locally heavy rains & gusty winds through Mon for parts of the Windward/Leeward Islands.”
What Happens Next
The NHC issues regular updates on both its website and social media channels.
The post Chances of Cyclone Forming Behind Tropical Storm Fernand Double appeared first on Newsweek.
