Democratic mayoral primary winner and New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani remains “the candidate to beat” in the battle to lead New York City, according to Dustin Olsen, lead pollster and managing partner at American Pulse Research & Polling, in a survey shared with Newsweek Wednesday night.
Why It Matters
Mamdani’s surge to become the potential face of the Democratic Party in The City That Never Sleeps has intensified debate over the future direction of the party as a whole, as his platform sharply contrasts with those of more centrist and establishment-aligned figures.
Mamdani has taken a more aggressive approach than many traditional Democrats—who have historically championed incremental reforms and avoided expansive tax policies targeting high-earners.
The New York City mayoral front-runner has proposed increasing taxes on residents earning more than $1 million annually, raising corporate tax rates and implementing a citywide rent freeze. These positions are central to his campaign, which he has framed around affordability, housing justice and public investment in services like free child care, city-owned grocery stores and public transportation.
As Mamdani awaits critical Democratic backing from party leaders like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, he sat down with business leaders in July, where he said he would discourage the phrase “globalize the intifada,” according to The New York Times, citing three people familiar with discussions.
What To Know
In the poll taken from August 14 to August 19 among 638 likely voters, Mamdani received 36.9 percent of the vote, an uptick of 1.7 percent from a poll in July.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo landed 24.6 percent of the vote, a 4.4 percent drop since last month. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa received 16.8 percent of the vote, a slight rise of 0.7 percent since the July survey. Mayor Eric Adams garnered 11.4 percent of the vote, a drop of 2.4 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
“Zohran Mamdani remains the candidate to beat,” Olson said. “However, this new survey also indicates that he can still be beaten.”
“Mamdani’s support is real and durable, but not overwhelming,” he continued, adding: “When crime and public safety enter the conversation, his ceiling shows.”
In a potential three-way race, Mamdani leads with 38.3 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 32.3 percent and Adams’ 20.4 percent. In a potential three-way race with Sliwa, Mamdani received 38.5 percent to Cuomo’s 30.3 percent and Sliwa’s 23 percent.
The survey also shows that 58.4 percent of respondents are “less likely” to vote for Mamdani after hearing his previous remarks about defunding the police. The survey shows that 23.8 percent are more likely.
Mamdani’s views are “too extreme,” 45 percent say, while 33.9 percent say they are “about right” and 6.7 percent say, “not progressive enough.”
Following a deadly mass shooting in New York City in July, Mamdani addressed his prior comments on law enforcement, saying, “I am not defunding the police. I am not running to defund the police,” according to CNN. The state assemblyman added that he is a “candidate who is not fixed in time, one that learns and one that leads, and part of that means admitting as I have grown.”
Mamdani is campaigning on a policy that would implement a “Department of Community Safety,” which would “invest in citywide mental health programs and crisis response” as well as deploy outreach workers in subway stations.
The survey also shows that Mamdani is the only candidate with a net positive favorability rating, with 47.8 percent favorable versus a 43.6 unfavorable rating.
What People Are Saying
Columbia University Professor Robert Y. Shapiro to Newsweek via email Wednesday: “What we are seeing in the poll numbers that have him ahead reflect his strengths with eye-opening ideas and a style that is energizing supporters. What we are not seeing are the possible effects of his weaknesses–where he is perceived as too extreme in his policies or positions.
“This is where the debates, assuming there may be more than one, will matter in that his opponents can focus on these extreme positions. This can undercut Mamdani’s support but not lead to a surge in any one candidate unless at least one of the other candidates with noticeable support drops out, since the vote is being divided.”
Mamdani posted to X on Wednesday: “When police are made to respond to every single failure of the social safety net, this is the result: forced overtime, declining quality of life, an exodus of officers. Our proposal for a Dept. of Community Safety will allow police to do the jobs they actually signed up for.”
Vermont independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who has backed Mamdani, posted to X on Tuesday: “The most remarkable reality of the Mamdani campaign is how much the financial and political establishment fears him. They know that when he wins, people nationwide will be motivated to end oligarchic control of our economy and politics. We can do this! Please support Zohran.”
Cuomo on X Wednesday: “Public safety is job 1. The NYPD is losing officers at a record level. Rebuilding it must be a top priority. The NYPD are NY’s finest. It’s past time to reverse this dangerous trend to protect our city My plan will add 5,000 officers, 1,500 in the subways, with incentive bonuses to attract the best.”
Sliwa on X Tuesday: “Crime isn’t down. You don’t feel safe because you aren’t. Every New Yorker deserves a safe commute. Here’s my plan to make it happen as your Mayor: http://sliwafornyc.com/safecommute”
Adams posted to X on Tuesday: “This is the time for experience—not experiments. Not upstart political candidates, nor their short-sighted policies and platforms, but a proven track record. With record total jobs, improved housing, and our historic crime declines, New York is back—and stronger than ever under my administration. So get out and vote to re-elect me as New York City mayor to continue on our proven pathway toward safety, affordability, and dignity for all New Yorkers”
What Happens Next
The general election is scheduled for November 4, and analysts say the race could most likely hinge on whether independent or third-party bids by figures like Cuomo or Adams persist or whether national involvement alters turnout or vote allocation.
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