Britain is bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Erin next week, though forecasters are still uncertain if the storm, or what remains of it by then, will strike directly. It is nonetheless expected to have a lasting effect on the nation’s weather for the remainder of the summer.
Erin erupted into a hurricane last weekend, intensifying rapidly from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in just 24 hours. It has since weakened but its size is generating life-threatening surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts Erin will become post-tropical by late this week near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Erin’s path after that is uncertain. Forecasts suggest that the system will continue toward western Europe, but where exactly it will land is not fully known yet. However, forecasters say one thing is clear: Erin will not regain hurricane strength as it crosses the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
“Technically no hurricane could hit the U.K.,” said Aidan McGivern, a meteorologist with the Met Office, Britain’s weather service. “The seas surrounding the U.K. are simply not warm enough.”
Tropical cyclones like Erin form over warm seas, with surface temperatures above 26 degrees Celsius (nearly 79 degrees Fahrenheit), where rising heat and moisture drive thunderstorms around a central eye. Low wind shear — winds that remain relatively consistent with height — helps those storms organize and intensify, but as conditions change, they weaken.
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The post What Happens When Hurricane Erin Crosses the Atlantic? Europe Is Watching. appeared first on New York Times.
