I am generally bullish about Democrats’ chances of retaking the House majority in 2026. That’s because the history of midterm elections is pretty overwhelming when it comes to seat losses for the president’s party.
When a president is unpopular in polls—as Donald Trump is today—those losses are even steeper. And yet, I don’t think a Democratic-controlled House is in the bag just yet.
Why?
Well, for much of the past year, I have been hearing from smart Democratic strategists who insist that their party has fallen badly behind Republicans in one of the critical nuts and bolts needed for winning elections: Registering voters.
And now the New York Times has exposed that problem — in a massive (and massively important) piece published this week. Here’s the key bit:
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.
It gets worse. In all four swing states that register voters by party—Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—Democratic registration eroded between 2020 and 2024. That year, for the first time since 2018, more voters registered as Republicans than Democrats; in 2018, two-thirds of new voters under the age of 45 were registering as Democrats, while in 2024, more than half of new voters under 45 registered as Republicans.
This is both an operations problem and a brand issue.
Democrats have largely farmed out their voter registration operation to outside groups who, clearly, have not done a good job.
And now, even if the Democratic National Committee wanted to take back over the registration efforts, it might not have the financial wherewithal to do so. At the end of July, the Republican National Committee had more than $84 million in the bank to spend. The DNC? Less than $14 million.
(Sidebar: How does DNC Chair Ken Martin still have his job?)
The Democrats’ current issues with their ‘brand’ are well known. In poll after poll, Democratic favorability is near or at all-time lows. How does that affect voter registration? Voters—and new voters especially—clearly don’t want to be associated with the Democratic brand. And that is a major problem.
I still tend to think 2026 will be a good election for Democrats. The historical trends are just too damn strong. But, man does the party have problems. And, at least on the voter registration front, there’s no quick fix.
Want more ball and strike calling—no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing? Check out Chris Cillizza’s Substack and YouTube channel.
The post Opinion: The Political Disaster Hiding in Plain Sight for Democrats appeared first on The Daily Beast.
