BRUSSELS — European leaders don’t believe Vladimir Putin is sincere about a peace deal — so their strategy is to humor and praise Donald Trump until he finally reaches the same conclusion and realizes he will need to get tougher on the Kremlin.
The European side thinks it’s a win-win approach. They will be delighted to be proved wrong if the U.S. president can negotiate an end to the Ukraine war with meaningful security guarantees, but the primary game plan is all about calling the Russian leader’s bluff and lobbying for tougher sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron, the world leader who made the greatest efforts to prevent the Ukraine war through diplomatic outreach to Putin, is now the most outspoken in declaring that the Russian president is not serious about peace and is still wedded to his goal of destroying an independent, democratic Ukraine.
“Do I think that President Putin wants peace? The answer is no. If you want my deepest belief: No. Do I think that President Trump wants peace? Yes,” Macron said before departing for Washington, where he joined talks on Monday. “I don’t think that President Putin wants peace. I think he wants the capitulation of Ukraine. That’s what he has proposed.”
Indeed, far from offering any concessions for a peace deal, Putin is simply demanding more territory from Kyiv, including key Ukrainian defensive lines that would allow him to strike deeper into the country. He is also flatly rejecting the presence of NATO forces to guarantee the country’s security after the war — a crucial condition for Kyiv.
With preparations now under way for a possible summit involving Russia and Ukraine, leaders from across Europe held a series of emergency talks on Tuesday to weigh up their response and share intel from discussions in the White House the day before.
According to five diplomats, granted anonymity to shed light on the sensitive calls, presidents, prime ministers and ambassadors largely aligned with Macron. They expressed deep skepticism that the Kremlin would negotiate in good faith — but were optimistic that Washington would punish Russia if Putin is shown to be the biggest obstacle to peace.
“It’s clear that if we end up in a situation where Putin proves he doesn’t want to end the war, that will force Trump to act and it strengthens the case for sanctions,” said a diplomat from one country represented in a virtual European Council session on Tuesday.
The Europeans see U.S. sanctions pressure as crucial to the diplomatic process and many argue Putin was strong-armed into engaging with Trump in Alaska only after Washington introduced high tariffs against India over its purchase of Russia’s economic lifeblood: oil. The dramatic next step would be to escalate similar sanctions to throttle Russia’s all-important trade with China.
A second diplomat confirmed the allies were happy to support the American initiative to broker a truce, not because they necessarily thought it would work, but “because it will be a clear test of Russian intentions.” A third said security guarantees being developed would help Ukraine “negotiate from a position of strength,” while sanctions would ensure “we … have leverage on Putin.”
Leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, France’s Macron, the U.K.’s Keir Starmer and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, jetted to Washington on Monday to back up Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a sit-down with Trump. That came just days after the U.S. leader hosted Putin for talks in Alaska and claimed to have made progress on “many points.”
“This is a constant Trump management exercise for everyone — Putin included, by the way,” Fiona Hill, a former advisor to the Republican in his first presidential term and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told POLITICO.
“But I think they did as good a job as you could expect on Monday.” According to her, the best that could have been hoped for from the Alaska summit was “something they could work with — and it seems like there was something, even though the optics were terrible.”
Penny drops for Trump
Western partners have lavished praise on Trump — thanking him for hosting the talks, and expressed genuine relief after he appeared to give substantial assurances that the country would play a role in security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Behind closed doors, however, they are more focused on pushing for new, hard-hitting economic restrictions if and when Moscow refuses to end its invasion.
“Everyone is going through the motions,” a fourth EU diplomat said. “But we don’t know what Putin’s end game is. What will motivate Putin to give any concessions? I don’t know.”
The pressure to talk peace is becoming a problem for the Russian leader.
The Kremlin’s response to the next round of diplomacy has been evasive. Playing for time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow was not rejecting talks with Ukraine — but insisted any summit would have to be prepared “step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages.” Putin even rather unhelpfully suggested a summit in Russia — a suggestion that was instantly dismissed.
One German official said this vacillation was becoming a substantial test of Russian seriousness.
“Russia agreed to host or participate in a bilateral summit with Zelenskyy … In the meantime, I take it from the [media] … that the Russian side now interprets this differently,” said the official.
On the European side, diplomacy is now moving briskly. The EU held an extraordinary meeting of ambassadors until 2 a.m. on Tuesday ahead of the leaders’ call and a separate video conference with the informal coalition of the willing, which includes non-EU countries such as Turkey and Canada. This comes just as a meeting of military chiefs is expected this week in Washington to discuss concrete security guarantees for Ukraine.
EU defense ministers and foreign affairs ministers will also meet informally next week, as expectations grow that a concrete peace proposal could be ready to present to Zelenskyy and Putin within a week or so.
Trump has hinted American air power could be used in Ukraine, while European countries could deploy troops to safeguard the country — all outcomes that would fly in the face of Russia’s ambitions to seize more territory.
But, while Western countries are increasingly confident that they can work with Trump and maintain a united front, they’ve also been forced to adjust their red lines to suit him. Following the talks in Washington, the EU on Monday appeared to soften its demand that Russia accept a ceasefire before negotiations begin.
“There was some hope Trump could change his mind back on the ceasefire issue. That didn’t happen,” said a fifth diplomat, expressing concern over the difference in positions. “But overall it was still a good step towards peace.”
Most crucially, however, even Trump himself now publicly acknowledges that Putin might not be negotiating in good faith.
“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks … It’s possible that he doesn’t want to make a deal,” the U.S. president told Fox News.
“I hope President Putin is going to be good, and if he’s not, that’s going to be a rough situation.”
Joshua Berlinger contributed reporting from Paris, Luke McGee from London, James Angelos from Berlin and Sebastian Starcevic from Brussels.
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