The immigrant population across the U.S. has dropped by more than 2 million since the start of the year, triggering warnings that construction and other labor-intensive industries could face worker shortages.
According to analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies, from January to July, the total foreign-born population in the U.S. dropped by 2.2 million, the largest six-month decline ever. This decrease was entirely among noncitizens, while naturalized citizens slightly increased.
Estimates suggest the illegal immigrant population fell by 1.6 million (10 percent) to 14.2 million, down from 15.8 million in January. Supporting this, there was a 10 percent decline in noncitizens from Latin America who arrived in 1980 or later, a group closely associated with illegal immigrants, the center said.
However, the report caveats that the decline, which is collected from the monthly Current Population Survey of about 60,000 U.S. households, could partially be due to a “greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born” due to strict immigration policies and enforcement put in place by the Trump administration.
The analysis was released shortly before Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem announced that 1.6 million illegal immigrants have left the country since the Trump administration began in January.
“In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population,” said Noem. “This is massive. This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans. Thank you, President Trump!”
The DHS has said the “rapid decline in the illegal immigrant population is already being felt nationwide, from reduced strain on public services to a resurgence in local job markets.”
Potential Economic Risks
In 2022, more than 30 million immigrants were part of the U.S. workforce, according to the Pew Research Center. Of these, 22.2 million were lawful immigrants, while 8.3 million were unauthorized workers.
And in several industries, immigrants make up a considerable portion of workers. According to the National Association of Housebuilders, immigrants make up one in four workers in the construction industry. Noncitizens comprise 41 percent of the construction workforce in California, the highest in the nation, while in Florida and Texas 38 percent of the construction labor force is foreign-born. In New York, 37 percent of construction industry workers come from outside the U.S.
While some view the immigrant decline as a boon to U.S-born workers, experts caution that a rapid reduction in labor carries some economic risks. The report notes that a tighter labor market could help less-educated U.S.-born and legal-immigrant workers, earn higher wages, as well as drawing more working-age men without a college degree back into the labor force.
However, Erika Dagestan, CEO of VISIONS, an equity and inclusion nonprofit, said that declining immigration numbers could “create immediate gaps in industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor” like construction, agriculture, health care, hospitality, and service sectors.
“In the long term, we’ll see effects in highly skilled fields as well: immigrants play an outsize role in research, technology, and higher education,” she told Newsweek. “Reduced inflows mean fewer workers in essential roles, AND also fewer innovators, educators, and entrepreneurs.”
Nicole Gunara, principal immigration lawyer at Manifest Law, warned that employers could “generally see productivity disruptions.”
“Take for example in the sector of construction, where a lack of workers can turn into significant construction delays,” she told Newsweek. “These delays can have domino effects on other industries and businesses that rely on such projects being completed on time.”
Javier Palomarez, founder and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, echoed these concerns.
“The short term impacts of such a rapid decrease in the immigrant population can be catastrophic. These immigrants, aside from contributing hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes, fill critical jobs in cornerstone industries. Reduced immigrant labor in agriculture, construction, and logistics raises costs across the supply chain, driving up food, housing, and consumer prices for every American.”
Palomarez also pointed out that many Americans are unwilling or underqualified to fill the roles traditionally held by immigrants. “You can raise wages to remain competitive, but that money will either come out of your pocket, or the customers. You can automate, but that often requires a significant investment. Relying on domestic workers to fill those jobs is simply unrealistic, especially for industries like agriculture.”
Dagestan agreed, saying that U.S. born workers cannot realistically fill the gap that could be left by growing numbers of departures.
“Many of these roles are ones U.S-born workers have historically been unwilling to take on due to low wages, harsh conditions, or geographic mismatch,” she told Newsweek. “Even in high-skill industries, the training pipeline for U.S.-born workers is too slow to fill gaps left by reduced immigration.”
The American View On Immigration
Reducing immigration, particularly illegal immigration, has been a long-term priority of President Donald Trump. Since his second administration began in January, border crossings have dropped significantly and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests increased by more than 200 percent in the year to June 2025.
“President Trump has created the most secure border in the history of the nation and the data proves it,” Trump’s border czar Thomas D. Homan wrote on X in July. “We have never seen numbers this low. Never.”
But public opinion on immigration is shifting. Only 43 percent of U.S. adults said they approved of Trump’s handling of immigration as of July, according to an AP-NORC poll of 1,437 adults.
A Gallup survey conducted the same month found that Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year: the share wanting immigration reduced has fallen from 55 percent in 2024 to 30 percent, while a record-high 79 percent now say immigration is a good thing for the country.
With illegal border crossings down sharply this year, fewer Americans support hard-line enforcement measures, and more favor offering pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the U.S, Gallup found.
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