The first round of Bolivia’s presidential election on Sunday signaled the end of 20 years of dominance by the governing socialist party, but a centrist senator’s surprise first-place finish upended many analysts’ expectations of a clear victory for the right.
The senator, Rodrigo Paz, had been polling near the bottom of the eight-candidate field, but preliminary results from Bolivia’s election authority on Sunday night showed him leading with 32 percent of the vote, with 78 percent of the ballots counted.
A conservative former president, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, was in second place with 27 percent. The two will face each other in an October runoff election.
“Nothing has been won here,” Mr. Paz said in a speech in a La Paz park on Sunday night, as supporters cheered and honked car horns. “The people have given us the right, and then we will have to fight the second part honestly. The important thing is that this is a project for all Bolivians and by all Bolivians.”
Bolivia is in the midst of an economic crisis, and many voters have been frustrated with the long-governing Movement For Socialism party, widely known by its Spanish acronym MAS. For two decades, the nation’s politics have been defined by the party, led by the former union leader Evo Morales, who in 2005 was elected the first Indigenous president of Bolivia and served for 14 years.
Sunday’s presidential election was the first since 2002 without Mr. Morales or a handpicked successor on the ballot. The outgoing president, Luis Arce of the MAS, is extremely unpopular and chose not to seek re-election. Analysts said Mr. Paz had drawn support from leftist voters who were disillusioned with the MAS but reluctant to back the right.
“This is a clear signal that people were just tired of the MAS, tired of the left,” said Gustavo Flores-Macías, a Cornell University professor who focuses on Latin American politics.
Mr. Paz cast himself as a centrist during the campaign, steering clear of polarizing rhetoric, said Veronica Rocha, a Bolivian political analyst. The son of a former president, Jaime Paz Zamora, Mr. Paz has been in politics for two decades and a senator since 2020, but he was never a nationally prominent figure before now.
“He is pragmatic,” Ms. Rocha said. “He has worked with everyone but is undoubtedly opposed to the MAS.”
His campaign focused on decentralizing the state and channeling more funds to regional governments. He also called for giving more Bolivians access to credit, removing restrictions on imports, tackling corruption and reforming the justice system.
Many supporters of Mr. Paz said they were particularly drawn to his running mate, Edman Lara, a police captain who resigned publicly after denouncing corruption in the police force.
“The only option we have left, the only hope we have left, is Rodrigo Paz and Captain Lara. Mostly because of Captain Lara,” said Claudia Ramos, 45, a street vendor in La Paz. “The other parties are very old, very dinosaurlike, and all they want is to come to power and stay in power and steal from us.”
Mr. Lara was crucial to the campaign’s strong social media strategy, and he crisscrossed the country reaching out to voters directly, said Carlos Saavedra, a political analyst. He called Mr. Lara “a true political outsider, a man who has never been a member of any party.”
Bolivia’s flailing economy was the top issue in the election. Fuel shortages, rising prices and a lack of access to U.S. dollars and imported goods have provoked fury and protests over the past few years.
During his three terms as president, Mr. Morales oversaw sharp declines in poverty and poured state funds into infrastructure, schools and health care.
But his disputed 2019 run for a fourth term triggered mass protests, deadly crackdowns, allegations of electoral fraud and a democratic crisis that forced him into temporary exile. Mr. Arce, his ally, won the presidency the following year, but the two later split in a bitter power struggle that splintered the party. A court barred Mr. Morales from running for president this year, citing term limits.
Mr. Morales declined to endorse a candidate and called on supporters to cast null votes to protest the court’s decision to exclude him, which experts say hurt leftist candidates at the polls.
Ms. Ramos, the street vendor who supported Mr. Paz, said her family had once backed Mr. Morales. But they lost faith in him after the 2019 election crisis, and Ms. Ramos blamed his administration for today’s shortages.
“I’m a single mother of four children and we don’t have enough money,” she said. “There are no dollars. Everything is expensive. We queue for oil. We queue for bread. We queue for everything.”
Samuel Doria Medina, a wealthy center-right businessman who had been leading in the polls, finished third, according to the preliminary results. Andrónico Rodríguez, a former Morales protégé and longtime MAS member, ran under the banner of a different party and finished fourth.
Mr. Quiroga was Bolivia’s president from 2001 to 2002, and he ran for president two other times. Both he and Mr. Paz have called for slashing government spending, including fuel subsidies, which were a hallmark of the MAS socialist economic model. .
Gilda Hurtado, 49, a forensic pathologist in La Paz, said she had voted for Mr. Quiroga. “I really like the political experience he already has. And apart from that, he is a businessman with an international outlook,” she said.
She also said she had voted for Mr. Morales when he first ran for president, but came to regret it.
“I believed that change was essential. I thought that would be the case,” she said. “But as the months went by, we realized that it was a vote that really punished us.”
Genevieve Glatsky is a reporter for The Times, based in Bogotá, Colombia.
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