Wholesale beef prices continue to reach new all-time highs, fueled largely by insufficient cattle herds and consistently elevated demand, and experts told Newsweek that these effects are poised to appear at the fast food counter.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported another jump in ground beef and beef steak prices, both of which are now at record levels.
“Beef is a big cost line for burger chains, and while they often hedge or lock in contracts, they can’t absorb sustained higher prices forever,” said Sylvain Charlebois, a food policy researcher at Dalhousie University, Canada.
“We’ve already seen quiet price hikes on menus—smaller burgers for the same price, or combo meals creeping up by a dollar,” he added. “If wholesale beef stays high into next year, expect more of that.”
Why It Matters
The high cost of staple agricultural products has already weighed on household budgets this year. Given the time it takes to replenish cattle herds, experts and agricultural economists believe it could be years before supply catches up to demand and prices begin to moderate. As well as this domestic squeeze, the imposition of tariffs on beef-producing nations such as Brazil threatens to limit imports and put further upward pressure on prices.
What To Know
According to BLS data, ground beef prices climbed to $6.25 per pound in July, up 12.6 percent from January and nearly 14 percent from the same month last year.
“It’s mostly about supply,” said Charlebois. “The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been in decades thanks to droughts in key ranching states, high feed costs, and ranchers selling off stock over the past few years.” He added that “surprisingly strong” demand had brought this issue into sharp relief.
The U.S. beef herd has been on a consistent decline over the past few years, with January’s cattle inventory of 86.7 million being the lowest since 1951. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which publishes these estimates, has forecast that beef production will continue down this path until 2028 and on Tuesday raised its cattle price forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
According to agricultural economist Derrell Peel, it is extremely likely that consumers will start to notice even higher retail beef prices going forward.
“Eventually and inevitably higher beef costs will get passed on to consumers to some extent,” he told Newsweek.
Philip Howard, professor of agriculture at Michigan State University, said it is “very likely that these prices will be more than passed on to buyers” at fast food restaurants and grocery stores. He added that the situation provides a convenient cover for “greedflation”—price hikes beyond what is demanded by increased costs.
However, there are no easy or swift solutions to the issues around beef production in the U.S.
“When the cattle industry decides to rebuild the cow herd, it will take 3-4 years to see growth in beef production,” Peel told Newsweek, adding that there is currently no data confirming that cattle producers have started this process.
“Basic biology means it takes time for beef production to respond—from the time a cow is bred to the time a calf is born is 9 months, and then it takes another 18-24 months for that calf to reach slaughter weight,” said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. As a result, he told Newsweek, beef supplies are “likely to remain constrained for at least another year and probably longer.”
Experts also cited disruptions to imports through tariffs as something that could put upward pressure on prices.
This week, the USDA revised down its 2025 beef import forecast to 4.95 billion pounds, a drop of 6.1 percent compared to last year and lower than July’s estimate of 5.35 billion pounds. The department said in its report that the adjustments reflect “reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil.”
What People Are Saying
Kenneth Burdine, livestock specialist at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek: “Beef supplies are likely to remain tight in the near future. A lot of ground beef comes from cull cows and farmers have not been culling as many cows because the calf market has been so strong. We are also not seeing a lot of heifer retention [keeping young females for breeding purposes, for clarity] yet, which will have to happen in order to see the cowherd grow in size.”
Professor Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University told Newsweek: “The record high ground beef prices we see currently include those increased beef imports and would be higher still without imports. Brazil has been the largest supplier of beef imports this year and the additional tariffs on Brazil will reduce those imports and push ground beef prices higher yet in the U.S.”
Lee Schulz, livestock economist at Iowa State University, told Newsweek: “Prices tend to be ‘sticky’ so as to not erode customer loyalty. However, prices typically adjust faster on the way up then the way down. Persistent high prices will entice beef retailers to offer more promotions to entice cost-conscious consumers into stores and restaurants.”
Professor Patrick Westhoff of the University of Missouri told Newsweek: “Tariffs are reducing beef imports. If 50 percent tariffs apply on Brazilian beef imports, those will be sharply reduced, and the 10 percent tariff on imports from Australia, New Zealand and other non-USMCA countries will also limit imports below what they otherwise would be at a time of high U.S. prices. This primarily affects the availability of lower-quality meat that is used in making products like hamburger, not higher-end cuts like steak.”
What Happens Next?
As experts told Newsweek, beef prices are expected to remain high through the rest of 2025, with a possible plateau as far-off as 2027.
Newsweek has contacted the fast food chains McDonald’s and Burger King to inquire about the effects of wholesale beef costs on their prices.
Cattle and beef prices have not peaked yet and will likely stay elevated until late in the decade.
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