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Washington elites – of both parties – are clutching their pearls at the prospect of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. “He’s Putin’s stooge!” scream Trump Derangement Syndrome Democrats. “He’ll betray Ukraine to get a deal!” scream the forever war Republican NeoCons. “He’ll abandon America First and get us embroiled in Europe’s problem!” scream the isolationists in the Republican Party.
None of them understand what makes Donald Trump tick. They think he’s just like them – another standard issue politician who cares more about perception than reality, who values process over progress. He may have an end goal, but is usually unwilling to make compromises to achieve it.
Donald Trump approaches problems from the other direction. He has an end goal, even if he’s not yet sure how to get there. He’s willing to improvise, to compromise, to completely change his approach, even if it’s unorthodox.
I’ve been in the Situation Room with four presidents, going back to President Richard Nixon. Trump is different. He focuses on getting a project completed as quickly as possible, no matter how he does it. It makes sense given his background. As a real estate developer, he didn’t make money until a building was finished. All the expenses were up front — buy the land, service the debt, and pay for workers, materials, and machinery.
When Trump began a real estate development, he didn’t know what difficulties he’d encounter along the way – bad weather, political roadblocks, labor disputes, supply chain disruptions. When he ran into problems, he improvised. His overriding goal was to finish the building as quickly as possible. Time is money. That’s why President Trump is moving on all these issues at warp speed. That is why he always has a Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C. That’s why his critics call him unpredictable and mercurial and howl with outrage if he changes plans.
Most politicians are understandably focused on the next election. They must appear to have all the answers, for fear their opponents will tear them apart. When was the last time a politician admitted his plan didn’t work? They give speeches, have negotiations, and don’t take risks for fear of failure or alienating important electorates. A politician can make process seem like progress.
Politicians are less concerned with achieving their ultimate goals than in having the right approach along the way. They stick to Plan A, even if it’s not working. Republicans and Democrats prolonged the forever wars in the Middle East for two decades because they didn’t want to admit they were wrong.
President Trump’s Plan A for ending the Ukraine War was to use his charm and personality to bring both sides to the negotiating table. That’s why for years he was reluctant to criticize Putin; because he wanted to flatter him to the negotiating table. But Plan A failed.
Plan B was to use maximum pressure to bring them to the table. It worked with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump’s threats to pull support from Ukraine convinced him to sign an agreement binding our economies together to develop Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. He offloaded much of the war’s costs to Europe. They’re now footing the bill instead of the American taxpayer.
But Plan B didn’t work with Putin. During their several phone calls, Putin told Trump he wanted to end the war. But once they hung up, Putin escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets.
So, what does Plan C look like? We don’t know yet. That is why President Trump wants to meet face to face with Putin: to assess whether he really does want a negotiated peace agreement or wants fight on…and on…and on… in a grinding war of attrition.
If Putin is willing to come to the table in good faith, President Trump is likely to push for a quick settlement. Neither side would get everything it wants, but each would get enough to live with. All along, Trump’s goal has been to negotiate an end to the war without alienating Putin or pushing Russia into China’s open arms.
But if President Trump concludes Putin is just playing for time, he is likely to move quickly to a Plan D – and force Putin to the table by strangling the Russian economy. He could impose secondary sanctions on those countries which ignore sanctions and still buy Russian oil and gas. He would give them a choice. They could continue to buy Russian energy and lose access to the all-important American market or stop buying Russian oil and continue to sell to the American consumer.
Russia has paid for the Ukraine war with oil and gas export revenues. Without that income, Putin would be hard pressed to continue fighting. Plan D would take longer but would ultimately force Putin to the negotiating table. Russia would literally run out of the money to prosecute the war.
The irony here? That they are meeting in Alaska. Russia used to own Alaska but was forced to sell it to America in 1867 – because it went broke paying for the Crimean war.
The post I’ve worked with 4 presidents — Trump’s Putin strategy shows his negotiation genius appeared first on Fox News.
