BRUSSELS — Man-made climate change made the July heat wave that blanketed Norway, Sweden and Finland 10 times more likely and 2 degrees Celsius hotter, according to a scientific report published Thursday.
“However, this is likely an underestimate,” said the researchers from the World Weather Attribution, a group of climate scientists that draft rapid analyses showing climate change’s role in extreme weather events.
The findings, which used peer-reviewed methods and models to compare the recent heat wave to the pre-industrial revolution world, come after the Nordic countries spent two weeks in mid-July grappling with abnormally hot temperatures for the region.
Health care and social services were strained, with some hospitals canceling surgeries and struggling to keep their buildings cool. It was also peak holiday season, leaving healthcare facilities operating with reduced staffing.
“This heat wave was relentless,” said Clair Barnes, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, and one of the authors of the analysis. “Two weeks of temperatures above 30°C in this region is unusual and, of course, highly concerning.”
The heat blast upended the region’s ecosystems. Reindeer fled from the countryside into cities, searching for water and escaping unexpected insects. The analysis noted that such changing migration patterns affect people’s livelihoods, such as Sámi reindeer herders.
“I watched a reindeer stay in the same patch of shade for three days straight without grazing, a quiet sign of the strain the heat was causing,” recalled Maja Vahlberg, a climate consultant at Swedish Red Cross.
Dry conditions also increased the risk of fires.
And as climate change accelerates, the situation will only deteriorate further, the researchers warned: “Similar heat waves are now estimated to be twice as likely as they were in 2018,” they said.
“We definitely expect more of these events in the future and we also expect them to become more intense,” said Erik Kjellström, professor in climatology at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, who also worked on the study.
The Nordic heat wave illustrates how pervasive climate change is becoming across Europe, spreading hot weather beyond areas built to accommodate it.
“This heat wave was a stark reminder of the threat of climate change in cold-climate countries that aren’t normally considered vulnerable,” Vahlberg said. “Our infrastructure was not built to withstand these extreme temperatures, and our aging population is increasingly susceptible to dangerous heat.”
Hot Europe
While the situation has slightly cooled in the Nordics, Southern Europe is still baking.
“And we can say with confidence that climate change has intensified those weather conditions,” Barnes said.
A heat wave is currently sweeping through France and Spain, with temperatures reaching into the mid-40 Cs. Heat warnings were also issued in Germany, Italy, the U.K., Albania and Montenegro this week.
In both France and Spain, national meteorological institutes said the heat wave will last at least through this week and possibly into next week.
“Heat waves have always happened, there will always be heat waves, but all of the temperatures are just getting higher, so the chances of reaching these potentially dangerous temperatures are just ratcheting up as the world warms,” Barnes said.
Additionally, most southern European countries, including Portugal, Spain, Greece, the Balkans and Turkey, are also battling wildfires.
Two people died in Spain, including one firefighter, while thousands had to be evacuated across the country.
In Greece, three people died and blazes are threatening the country’s third-largest city, Patras, west of Athens, forcing thousands to evacuate.
In Albania, roughly 50 fires have been recorded over the past few days, with the most intense blazes hitting the southern region of Gramsh, where one elderly man died. Meanwhile, fires claimed at least 17 lives in Turkey last month. And in France last week, the country experienced its worst fire since 1949, according to national authorities.
With climate change drying out the landscape, these blazes are only becoming harder to contain. According to the European Forest Fires Information System, more than twice as much area has burned thus far in 2025 as last year over the same period.
The EU’s fire danger forecast for the coming days is bleak.
It predicts “extreme to very extreme conditions across the entire continent,” citing numerous southern, central and eastern countries.
And in a sign of the changing patterns, it also notes that “high anomalies” can be expected “in Sweden, parts of Norway, and eastern Finland.”
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