After alternating 13- and 11-win regular seasons over the past five years, reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills look poised to once again compete for the top seed in the AFC — and homefield advantage — after a 13-4 finish in 2024.
After starting our look at the 2025 AFC South win totals in Buffalo, we’ll also break down the projected finishes for the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets.
Will New England, Miami or New York find a way to keep pace with Buffalo in 2025?
2025 AFC East Win Total Odds
Best Buffalo Bills 2025 Win Total Bet
Thanks to an excellent ground game last year, the Bills were second in the NFL in points per game despite Allen finishing 14th in the league in pass attempts per game.
Buffalo returns all five members of one of the top offensive lines in the league, which allowed just 14 sacks a year ago. This will be a tough offense to stop even if the wide receiver group continues to lack any household names.
Last year, Khalil Shakir led the team in catches with 76. The Bills’ next-leading receivers a year ago, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel, both finished with just 31 catches. They were, however, among eight players — including tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox and RB James Cook — who caught at least 20 passes.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Bills won 13 games last year was their dominance in the turnover battle. Buffalo not only finished with the fewest giveaways (8), it also was third in takeaways. It’s worth noting that 27 (!) of 32 teams finished with 15 giveaways, but the Bills and Chargers were the only teams with single-digit offensive turnovers.
Based on regression to the mean, if nothing else, the turnover luck is bound to be less favorable this year.
Still, I like the Bills to win at least 13 regular-season games, as the schedule is favorable thanks to six matchups against the rest of the AFC East and six more against the NFC South. Sports Betting Dime’s Matt McEwan ranks Buffalo’s schedule as tied with Jacksonville’s as the 27th-most difficult.
The opener at home against Baltimore will be tough, but with four of their first five games in Buffalo, the Bills could easily start the season 4-1 or 5-0 before traveling to Atlanta in Week 6 and Carolina in Week 8 following the bye week.
Best bet: Over 12.5 Wins (+105 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Best New England Patriots 2025 Win Total Bet
It would be a massive understatement to say that New England is expected to improve in Year 2 for promising QB Drake Maye — and Year 1 under former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel. The Pats won just four games apiece in ’23 and ’24, but they’re projected to finish around .500 in Maye’s second season.
New England finished 30th in points scored and 31st in yards gained last year. Maye was sacked on over 9 percent of his dropbacks across 12 starts, leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson averaged less than 4 yards per carry and tight end Hunter Henry was the only bright spot among an underwhelming group of pass catchers.
But the Pats signed Stefon Diggs, bolstered the O-line by taking LSU left tackle Will Campbell with the fourth pick in the draft and also drafted Ohio State RB Treveyon Henderson in the second round.
On defense, Vrabel should be able to make New England respectable or better after that unit failed to live up to expectations in 2024. Linebacker Robert Spillane and DL Milton Williams should improve a group that features a solid secondary anchored by corners Christian Gonzalez and free agent Carlton Davis.
I don’t doubt that New England will be much better in 2025 than it was in 2024, but I’m not convinced this team will jump from 4-13 to 9-8.
So, let’s play it safe here and go with the Pats to go over their alt total of 7.5 wins. Right now, that is a hard play to to resist at -150 at FD, especially given that “Patriots Over 7.5 Wins” is listed at -180 at both DK and bet365.
Best bet: (Alt) Patriots Over 7.5 Wins (-150 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Best Miami Dolphins 2025 Win Total Bet
Head coach Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins are at a crossroads entering the 2025 campaign.
After earning Wild Card berths in 2022 and 2023, the Fins struggled in 2024. They went a respectable 6-5 in the 11 games QB Tua Tagovailoa started, but 2-4 with Tagovailoa on the sidelines due to a midseason concussion and a hip injury late in the year.
As Tagovailoa enters Year 6, Miami is facing major questions about whether its franchise quarterback — who has missed at least four games in all but one of his five NFL seasons — will be able to stay on the field. And obviously, having to replace LT Terron Armstead — who retired this offseason — will make life that much more difficult for this offense.
Miami’s season will also hinge on what it gets from star receiver Tyreek Hill. In 2023, Hill turned 171 targets into 119 receptions for a league-high 1,799 yards and 13 TDs. Last year, however, he produced just 81 catches for 959 yards and 6 TDs on 123 targets.
His yards-per-target numbers the last three years — 10.1 y/tgt in 2022, 10.5 y/tgt in 2023 and 7.8 y/tgt in 2024 — make it unclear what to expect from the 31-year-old, five-time All-Pro.
On D, there’s a range of outcomes for a unit that could have a dangerous pass rush if former first-rounders Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Chop Robinson can stay healthy and play up to their potential. The secondary could be a major weakness after the offseason losses of corner Jalen Ramsey (in a trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick) and safety Jevon Holland.
Trusting Tagovailoa to play a full season, Hill to bounce back and Phillips and Chubb to stay healthy feels like asking for a bit too much, so I’ll take the Dolphins to go 7-10 or worse.
Best bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-115 available at FD, DK, bet365) — 1 unit
Best New York Jets 2025 Win Total Bet
Last year, the New York Jets endured a highly scrutinized nightmare of a season, as they started out 2-6 and never recovered.
New York’s struggles on both sides of the ball last year make it easy to forget that it had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2022 and 2023.
This D still features a couple of stars in DT Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. Under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn and veteran DC Steve Wilks, Williams and Gardner should be able to anchor a solid defense.
Signing Justin Fields to replace Aaron Rodgers at QB this offseason was a roll of the dice.
Still, this offense has a chance to be solid, as long as
- A) it can avoid the self-inflicted mistakes — especially penalties — that plagued it a year ago
- B) young LT Olu Fashanu (the No. 11 overall pick in 2024) and RT Armand Membou (this year’s No. 7 overall pick) hold up
Between those two, center Joe Tippmann (a second-rounder in 2023), Alijah Vera-Tucker (the No. 14 overall pick in 2021) and veteran left guard John Simpson, the Jets have the makings of a top O-line.
If Fields and RBs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen can combine to form a strong running game, this offense could surprise some people.
Despite how badly last year went — and all the significant ifs I just listed — I’m convinced that the Jets have enough talent to win seven games in Glenn’s first year as HC. Remember, that’s a number they reached in both 2022 and 2023 with Zach Wilson under center.
Best bet: Jets Over 6.5 Wins (+125 at FD) — 0.5 units
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