We’ve grown accustomed to supermarket shortages, from during to sunflower oil amid the and during bird flu outbreaks.
The latest casualty is the hazelnut, due to a rare and devastating frost in April in — the world’s largest supplier — and ongoing climate change pressures.
Hazelnut prices have jumped over 35% since April, as exporters rushed to buy up the more limited supply. At one point, Turkish hazelnut futures prices exceeded 200 lira ($4.91, €4.22) per kilogram, with predictions of $10 per kilo internationally.
This shortfall is set to hit sweet tooths hard, as the cost of Nutella, the beloved chocolate-hazelnut spread, faces sharp price increases, along with other chocolates and baked goods.
Nutella’s hazelnut headache
Although hazelnuts don’t get much attention, they are a key ingredient in many premium and mass market products. For brands like Ferrero, which makes Nutella and reportedly uses around a quarter of the world’s hazelnut supply, the stakes are high.
Hazelnuts make up about 13% of Nutella’s recipe. Millions of jars of the chocolate spread are sold annually, meaning even small price rises drive up production costs and squeeze margins.
The hazelnut shortage, if sustained, may force Ferrero and other producers to reformulate the recipes for their sweet treats. Confectioners could potentially be forced to shrink product sizes or pass costs onto consumers, just as the popular festive period draws closer.
Ferrero’s roots are in Piedmont region, where high-quality Tonda Gentile . As well as Italy, Ferrero sources hazelnuts annually from Turkey, and the .
The Italian food giant also makes Ferrero Rocher, Kinder Bueno and Mon Cheri chocolates, among others, which all contain the nut.
The company played down concerns about shortages in a statement to DW, saying: “The Ferrero Group diversifies sourcing from multiple origins worldwide and, thanks to its long-term strategy, Ferrero does not expect any supply disruptions for its products.”
The firm said its sourcing strategy ensured “a consistent year-round supply.”
How bad is the Hazelnut shortfall?
Estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) in June put the 2025 crop at 520,000 metric tons, versus the roughly 750,000 tons originally expected, although it was later revised up.
The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) told DW that the frost in Turkey had cut the hazelnut crop forecast by nearly 22% to about 601,000 tons in-shell, citing a more optimistic projection from the Black Sea Exporters’ Association (KiB).
The latest estimate suggests the country lost about 167,000 tons to the frost, according to INC. This compares to initial fears of nearly 250,000.
Fortunately, Turkey held back some of its 2022 crop — around 150,000 metric tons, INC said, which has now been exhausted. This should help reduce the shortfall.
Hazelnuts are harvested annually, typically in late summer. But in years of surplus, Turkey often stores excess crops for future sale as farmers anticipate higher prices.
Confectioners seek other supplies
Corporate buyers are now looking to Chile, , and the US to reduce reliance on Turkey, but are also secretly hoping that prices stabilize if the 2025 Turkish crop is better than feared.
“The hazelnut harvest in Turkey will begin on August 10 and is expected to be completed around mid-September,” the German confectioners’ association BDSI told DW in a written statement. BDSI said it would only be able to assess the impact once the harvest was over.
Other hazelnut growing regions also face challenges. Chile and Georgia produce far less than Turkey, and US hazelnuts, mainly from Oregon, differ in flavor and cost less. Scaling up production elsewhere takes years, as hazelnut trees take 5-7 years to mature, limiting short-term relief.
Some believe Turkey’s delay in announcing a base hazelnut price last year also left a vacuum that was filled by speculators and exporters. The KiB traditionally sets a price floor at the beginning of the harvest to stabilize the market and guide farmer expectations.
But the lack of a base price amplified shortage fears, drove up prices and triggered panic buying. Sensing an opportunity to profit, farmers withheld stock, further tightening supply.
Changing climate could normalize shortages
The shortage also exposes a deeper vulnerability: the fragility of crop-dependent sectors to the effects of .
Hazelnuts are particularly sensitive to spring frosts, and this year’s cold snap in Turkey is a stark reminder of how the climate crisis doesn’t just mean heat — it also means unpredictability.
Coffee and cocoa have recently faced climate-related disruptions. Together with the hazelnut shortage, confectioners have been forced to rethink sourcing and ingredients in their sweet treats.
Experts have warned that erratic weather could become more frequent, not just threatening hazelnuts but also almonds and walnuts.
Edited by Ashutosh Pandey
The post Hazelnut crunch: How Turkey’s frost bites chocolate lovers appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
