Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at how Europe is preparing for the Trump-Putin summit, South Africa’s revised trade proposal with Washington, and a U.S. terrorist designation for the Balochistan Liberation Army.
A Seat at the Table
The clock is ticking as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to convene in Alaska for peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine war. But with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky notably not invited to attend Friday’s summit, Western leaders are worried that Trump will sideline Europe’s security interests and cave to Moscow’s demands.
Trump has suggested that Ukraine will have to cede land to Russia to secure a peace deal, a condition that Kyiv and the European Union vehemently reject. “The Europeans are perfectly willing to support a solution which would involve, my sense is, a cease-fire roughly along the existing line,” Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, told FP’s Christina Lu. “But a cease-fire, an armistice—not a final settlement. They don’t want to recognize Russian annexation.”
Currently, Russia occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and controls nearly all of the land in its own Kursk region, which Ukraine seized during a surprise incursion last August. According to people familiar with the upcoming talks, the White House and the Kremlin are considering a land swap that would grant Russia sizable territorial gains, including full authority of Ukraine’s Donbas and Crimea regions. It is unclear which areas Russia would willingly surrender—if any.
But EU members fear that such a result would effectively constitute a Russian win and set the stage for Moscow to turn its sights on the rest of Europe. On Wednesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will hold virtual meetings aimed at rallying Trump to Ukraine’s—and Europe’s—cause. Trump has not confirmed whether he will attend, but he has promised to “get everybody’s ideas” before Friday’s dialogue with Putin.
Whether that will be enough to assuage European concerns, though, remains slim. “The whole thing appears half-cocked, ill-prepared, and confused, probably due to the involvement of [U.S. special envoy Steve] Witkoff and his incompetent, blundering, credulous approach to dealing with the Russians, who have played him like a fiddle,” John Foreman, a former U.K. defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, told FP’s John Haltiwanger. “Meanwhile, Putin has conceded nothing, has avoided sanctions, and will be delighted to be back at the top table.”
Ukraine appears to agree. Putin wants to “deceive America,” Zelensky warned in an evening address on Sunday. On Tuesday, he also suggested that Moscow is preparing to launch a new offensive. Over the past few days, Russian forces have advanced roughly nine miles along a narrow corridor near a key logistical hub; such a territorial grab could be used as leverage in upcoming negotiations.
Even Trump is tempering his optimism. Friday’s summit is a “feel-out meeting,” he said on Monday, downplaying expectations that a concrete agreement will emerge. “If it’s a fair deal, I will reveal it to the European Union leaders and to the NATO leaders and also to President Zelensky,” he added. “I may say, ‘Lots of luck, keep fighting,’ or I may say, ‘We can make a deal.’”
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What We’re Following
Negotiating a better rate. South African Trade Minister Parks Tau announced on Tuesday that Pretoria will submit a revised trade proposal to counter steep U.S. tariffs. Last week, Trump imposed a 30 percent duty on South African goods—the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the highest U.S. levies in the world. It is unclear what South Africa’s new proposal will offer to try to bring U.S. duties down.
The Trump administration has been particularly critical of South Africa, namely over its land redistribution policy, which aims to address the country’s decades of apartheid. The White House has accused Pretoria of unfairly discriminating against white Afrikaners, which rights experts and foreign leaders deny. On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department issued a memo to Congress that reportedly outlines how Washington plans to target Pretoria over this alleged mistreatment, according to leaked drafts reviewed by the Washington Post.
But where trade talks with South Africa appear fraught, some U.S. adversaries are having better luck. On Monday, the United States and China agreed to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days, thereby keeping U.S. duties at a minimum of 30 percent and Chinese levies at roughly 10 percent.
Terrorist designation. Pakistani officials on Tuesday celebrated the U.S. State Department’s decision to designate the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and its military branch, the Majeed Brigade, as foreign terrorist organizations. The U.S. Treasury Department named the BLA a terrorist group in 2019, but the State Department’s new classification is more severe, recognizes attacks that have occurred since the original declaration, and highlights Washington’s thawing relationship with Islamabad. The separatist group has not publicly commented on the U.S. announcement.
In late July, the United States and Pakistan secured a trade deal that will allow U.S. companies to access oil reserves in the resource-rich Balochistan province. And on Monday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir visited Washington to promote the two countries’ military cooperation.
“Terrorist designations play a critical role in our fight against this scourge and are an effective way to curtail support for terrorist activities,” the State Department said in a statement. The BLA claimed responsibility last year for suicide bombings near Jinnah International Airport in Karachi and the port city of Gwadar, as well as for the March hijacking of a Jaffar Express train traveling to the city of Peshawar, during which the group held more than 300 passengers hostage and killed dozens of others.
Collision at Scarborough. The Philippines condemned Chinese naval maneuvers in the South China Sea on Tuesday. According to Philippine authorities, three vessels delivering supplies to fishers operating near the Scarborough Shoal encountered “hazardous” and “blocking actions” from Chinese ships in the area. “Their actions not only posed a grave danger to Philippine personnel and vessels, but also resulted in the unfortunate collision between the two Chinese vessels,” the Philippine Foreign Affairs Ministry said in a statement.
Footage released by the Philippine Coast Guard shows a Chinese coast guard ship following a Philippine vessel before another vessel, a Chinese warship, cuts across their path and crashes into the Chinese crew. It is unclear how much damage was caused or if anyone was injured.
Beijing claims that it took the necessary measures to counter Manila’s presence in Scarborough Shoal, which is a disputed territory. But foreign powers, including the United States, denounced China’s actions as a reckless provocation that threatens Indo-Pacific security.
Odds and Ends
A school of jellyfish forced four French nuclear reactors to shut down on Sunday. According to the facility’s operations manager, the “massive and unpredictable” swarm of jellyfish floated into the pumping stations’ filter drums. No damage was caused, but the facility must be cleaned out before it can return to normal functions. Marine biologists suggested that warming waters from climate change are to blame, but maybe the creatures were just jelly—er, jealous—of all the attention that clean energy is getting.
The post Europe Urges Trump Not to Cave to Putin’s Demands appeared first on Foreign Policy.
