California Governor Gavin Newsom is slightly more likely than New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
According to online betting website Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, Newsom is leading the progressive firebrand by 4 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup that also includes other high-profile Democratic figures.
Neither candidate has formally announced a presidential run but both have sparked speculation that they may run as they boosted their social media presence and attended rallies across America.
Why It Matters
While the next presidential election is over three years away, Democrats have appeared divided been in the wake of then-Vice President Kamala Harris‘ loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Some blamed her loss on alienating moderate voters while others said she was not progressive enough. Whoever emerges as the next party leader will shape the Democratic narrative for change and hold a lot of responsibility for the party’s electoral success.
What To Know
Newsom, who has consistently been mentioned among the leading candidates in most polls of the 2028 primary, has a 19 percent chance of winning.
He has not announced his candidacy, nor has he ruled it out. In June 2025, he told The Wall Street Journal: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
This is 4 percentage points more than AOC, who has a 15 percent chance of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee.
In April, she was asked about whether she might run for president by a Fox News Digital reporter on Capitol Hill. She did not answer either way and merely joked: “Because of my Instagram posts?”
Ocasio-Cortez had posted what some considered to be a campaign-style video on social media in April. It showed clips of a recent tour she did with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
Pressed further, she said: “Look, it’s a video. Frankly, what people should be most concerned about is the fact that Republicans are trying to cut Medicaid right now and people’s health care. It’s a danger and that’s really what my central focus is.”
“To me, this moment is not about campaigns or elections or about politics. It’s about making sure people are protected,” she continued.
“And we’ve got people that are getting locked up for exercising their First Amendment rights, we’re getting 2-year-olds getting deported into cells in Honduras, we’re getting people about to get kicked off of Medicaid. That, to me, is the most important thing.”
Meanwhile, other political figures are also being mooted for 2028. These include Pete Buttigieg, who was transportation secretary under then President Joe Biden, who has a 12 percent chance of winning the ticket, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who is trailing with a 6 percent chance of success.
What People Are Saying
Political science professor at Columbia University Robert Y. Shapiro previously told Newsweek: “The Democratic primary polling is much too early and all we are seeing is name recognition for past presidential candidates and ones in the news lately in a visible way.”
What Happens Next
Most candidates do not announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections.
Several other Democrats might throw their hat into the ring for the primary including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego.
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