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Too bad there isn’t a way to debug the tech job market.
With Big Tech layoffs, the increase in computer science graduates, and quicker ways to learn through AI and vibe coding, there’s a lot more tech talent, but not a lot of opportunities.
The labor market has been frozen for months, marked by low layoffs, low hiring, and few openings for job seekers and switchers.
It’s looking like a better time to continue writing lines of code at your current role than to try to switch jobs or ask for a promotion.
Here are three charts that show how hard the tech job market is right now.
Are you an unemployed tech job seeker or staying put in your job because of the current job market? Reach out to these reporters to share your story at [email protected] and [email protected].
Tech job postings crashed after a post-pandemic boom
Indeed Hiring Lab economist Brendon Bernard said in a recent report that tech opportunities have been weak since mid-2023 after climbing to an early 2022 peak. The cooldown has been worse than the slowdown in overall US job postings.
The report said artificial intelligence “could be stalling a rebound” in tech openings on the job-search platform. However, it’s not the only possible factor.
Bernard said that “the sector is experiencing an overhang from its earlier hiring boom, aggravated by less supportive economic conditions — including the end of the ‘zero interest rate period’ — with some resemblance to trends in the broader economy.” The Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight rising inflation, making financing big speculative investments in new tech riskier.
Unemployment for young tech workers is above pre-pandemic rates
A Burning Glass Institute analysis found the unemployment rate for Gen Z and younger millennials who were in computer and math occupations over the last couple of years has increased from their pre-pandemic rates in 2018 and 2019.
The recent report said that knowledge economy sectors, which are primarily white-collar industries that usually absorb college graduates, have scaled back their hiring pace from before the pandemic, “suggesting that they have found a new lower-employment equilibrium.” It’s another sign of a quiet white-collar apocalypse afflicting Gen Z.
Younger workers are also already on the tougher side of the career divide that’s cleaving Gen Z white-collar workers. The oldest Gen Zers, who are turning 28 this year, experienced a labor market in 2021 and 2022 that was eager to staff up on white-collar workers, and may have benefited from firms willing to pay a premium to attract new employees amid the Great Resignation.
Even if you have a tech job, it’s hard to move up
As economists have said many times over the past year to Business Insider, it’s a tougher time to be a job seeker than a job stayer. That can still be the case if you’re looking to move up the ladder or switch roles within your current company.
Gusto, a payroll and benefits platform for small and midsize businesses, found that the promotion rate in technology has slowed down the most among major sectors since the Great Resignation. Gusto economist Aaron Terrazas said a normalization from “aggressive talent retention strategies” that companies tried in 2021 and 2022 could be a factor.
“We’ll only know with time whether or not this is the new normal,” Terrazas said about the slowdown in promotions across industries. “Right now, there are clearly a lot of structural forces, high interest rates, economic uncertainty, that would make it seem at least for the moment cyclical.”
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