New California polling shows former Vice President Kamala Harris losing steam in her home state in a look-ahead to Democrats‘ chances in the 2028 presidential election primary, after she recently announced she would not be seeking a run as California’s next governor.
Why It Matters
Many political observers are curious about Harris’ future in politics after she announced a week ago that she would not run to succeed term-limited California Governor Gavin Newsom, saying in part that “for now,” her “leadership and public service” will be provided in an arena outside of elected office.
Harris, who had an unsuccessful presidential run in 2020, was tasked by Democrats to defeat Donald Trump in 2024 with limited months’ notice and preparation following questions about former President Joe Biden‘s mental acuity. She ultimately lost every swing state in November and garnered about 2.3 million fewer votes than her Republican opponent.
What To Know
An Emerson College poll of California voters released Friday shows Harris at 11 percent, trailing California Governor Gavin Newsom at 23 percent and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 17 percent in a potential 2028 Democratic primary. Harris is, however, ahead of New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is at 9 percent.
On the Republican side, 40 percent support Vice President JD Vance, 10 percent support Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, and 9 percent support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The poll of roughly 1,000 California voters was conducted August 4 to 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The results differ from a national Emerson poll in June, when Buttigieg led the Democratic pack with 16 percent followed by Harris at 13 percent, Newsom at 12 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both 7 percent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 5 percent, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker at 3 percent. Twenty-three percent were undecided.
However, that poll took into account U.S. voters and not just those from California.
Camille Mumford, communications director for Emerson College Polling, told Newsweek via email on Friday that directly following the 2024 election, their November poll found Harris front of mind for Democratic voters who named her as their top choice for the nomination in 2028.
“Eight months later, voters appear to be looking for a new face as the nominee, and Harris has fallen into the pack of potential candidates,” Mumford said. “Harris performs strongest among Black Democratic primary voters nationally, 30 percent of whom supported her in June; and those in the Midwest and South, 16 percent of whom support Harris, compared to 9 percent of those in both the Northeast and West.”
Harris, who has a history in California as former district attorney, attorney general and U.S. Senator, lacked a strong home base in the 2020 Democratic primary, Mumford noted.
In Emerson’s September 2019 poll, Biden, Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren led the primary with Harris trailing in fourth place. She then dropped out in December of that year, ahead of the deadline for taking her name off of the California primary ballot.
California Governor Race
Now that Harris has said she won’t run for California governor, it’s allowed other familiar faces in the state to garner more attention.
Per the new Emerson poll, California voters find former Democratic Representative Katie Porter leading the primary for California governor with 18 percent, followed by Republican political commentator Steve Hilton at 12 percent, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 7 percent, and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5 percent. About 38 percent remain undecided.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement: “With Kamala Harris officially out of the race, Katie Porter has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, increasing her support from 12 percent to 18 percent since the April Emerson poll.”
Harris, in a statement released on X on July 30: “Over the past six months, I have spent time reflecting on this moment in our nation’s history and the best way for me to continue fighting for the American people and advancing the values and ideals I hold dear.
“I have given serious thought to asking the people of California for the privilege to serve as their governor. I love this state, its people and its promise. It is my home. But after deep reflection, I’ve decided that I will not run for Governor in this election.”
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen whether the former vice president will enter the 2028 presidential race.
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