Narendra Modi first rolled out the red carpet for Xi Jinping.
He shared a riverfront swing in his home state with the leader of the giant neighbor that he hoped his own large nation could emulate in economic prosperity. But as they chatted, Chinese troops got involved in a standoff with Indian troops along their shared border. The flare up in 2014 was the first of several acts of aggression that would ultimately leave Mr. Modi embarrassed, his economy squeezed by the need to keep tens of thousands of Indian troops on a war-footing high in the Himalayas for several years.
Years later, India’s strongman warmed up to the United States, putting even more of his political credit on the line to rapidly transform a relationship that had been only slowly shedding its Cold War-era frost. He developed such a bonhomie with President Trump in his first term that he broke with protocol to campaign for a second term for the American leader at a stadium-packed event in Houston. His confidence in India’s increasing alignment with the United States grew after the administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr. looked past Mr. Modi’s partisan play to continue expanding relations with India, a bulwark against China.
“A.I.” stands for “America and India,” Mr. Modi, who has a penchant for playing with acronyms, told a joint session of Congress last year.
Then came the very public humiliation of Mr. Modi by Mr. Trump, now in his second term. The U.S. President singled India out for a whopping 50 percent tariff, citing its purchases of Russian oil, and called India’s economy “dead.” And he stirred rancor among Indians by giving the leadership of Pakistan, India’s smaller archrival that Mr. Trump himself had previously called a state sponsor of terror, equal footing as he tried to settle a conflict between the Asian neighbors earlier this year.
All that has plunged India into a moment of soul-searching, exposing limitations to its power on the world stage despite its Gargantuan size and growing economy. Mr. Modi this week acknowledged that he may have to a pay a personal political price from the trade dispute.
There is increased activity toward warming ties with Beijing again, with Mr. Modi scheduled to visit at the end of the month for the first time in seven years. But relations remain strained by the border skirmish and China will be wary of New Delhi’s efforts to create a manufacturing alternative to China.
Russia’s steadfastness as a partner is also being talked up by officials. Mr. Modi’s national security adviser was in Moscow this week to finalize details of a trip by President Vladimir V. Putin to New Delhi, while Russian officials took the opportunity to emphasize the need for a fairer world order. Mr. Modi also spoke with the leader of Brazil, stuck in its own messy showdown with Trump, about strengthening ties.
But beyond the scramble and defiance, India’s ambition to consolidate its rise as an economic and diplomatic force appears deflated by the sudden uncertainty.
Stuck between two superpowers that have shown no hesitation to put India down in moments of friction, there is a growing sense among Indian officials and experts that the country will have to firmly return to its long-tested doctrine of “strategic autonomy.” In plain speak, that means India is on its own and should make do with a patchwork of contradictory and piecemeal ties, and avoid overcommitting to alliances.
Nriupama Rao, a former Indian ambassador to Beijing and Washington, said President Trump’s punishing moves had upended “the strategic logic of a very consequential partnership” that was carefully nurtured over more than two decades. There would be “very pragmatic strategic recalibrations” on the part of New Delhi to protect its interests, she said.
India’s growing economy allows its leaders breathing room, but it is still a moment of “deep introspection” for the country.
“We have to draw our lessons from that and really focus on the national priorities and what we need to do to become strong and more influential,” Ms. Rao said.
There is no indication that official talks between New Delhi and Washington have entirely broken down.
Mr. Trump’s announcement that the additional 25 percent tariff, imposed as a penalty for India’s trade ties to Russia, will go into effect later in the month suggested it could be a crude bargaining tactic to get a more favorable trade deal, and also to pressure Russia to reach a settlement in Ukraine.
Before Mr. Trump put the purchase of Russian oil at the center, Indian officials said progress was being made over his broader concern that trade was out of balance. India had showed willingness to expand its purchases of American energy and defense items.
After multiple rounds of talks, the technical teams from India and the United States appeared to be close to finalizing a first phase of bilateral agreement over the summer. India was even willing to open up, to an extent, its long protected agriculture market as well, officials have said, something that had been a sticking point in the negotiations.
Amitabh Kant, until recently Mr. Modi’s envoy for dealing with the Group of 20 economies, said such strong-arm tactics were something Mr. Trump had used against other traditional allies of America as well, and that India could still arrive at a mutually beneficial trade deal.
“But even if the trade issues are sorted out, the trust would have been lost forever,” he said.
If Mr. Modi’s response to the Chinese aggression is any indication, analysts say, he will try to resolve the breakdown with the United States quietly and without public escalation.
In the wake of the deadly Chinese encroachment at the border, Mr. Modi’s response was measured. Even as he leveraged the shared threat from Beijing to expand defense and technology and maritime ties with the United States, his officials were at pains to avoid being used by the U.S. as a pawn against Beijing. That avoidance of public escalation has made it possible to work toward patching up the relationship since last October, when officials of the two sides started engaging in earnest.
The chest-thumping against Mr. Trump from Mr. Modi’s shocked support base has been limited, and the strongman leader has cloaked his defiance as defending his people’s livelihoods.
“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,” Mr. Modi told a gathering this week, after Mr. Trump’s announcement of the high tariffs. “I know I will have to pay a heavy price personally, and I am ready for it.”
Mujib Mashal is the South Asia bureau chief for The Times, helping to lead coverage of India and the diverse region around it, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan.
Hari Kumar covers India, based out of New Delhi. He has been a journalist for more than two decades.
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