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Do you remember the BlackBerry? If you’re younger than 30, you probably think I’m talking about the fruit.
Nope. The BlackBerry was by far the most popular smartphone 20 years ago. Back in the mid-2000s, everyone used and loved its QWERTY keyboard and the ability to get emails instantly. Gasp!
They were actually really cool. I loved mine, and I was late to trade it for a new device called the Apple iPhone. You may have heard of this one!
BlackBerry was among the most valuable companies in the world and the pride of Canada, where it was founded. The stock peaked at more than $140 in May 2008, then plunged as consumers adopted the iPhone en masse over the ensuing years. BlackBerry shares trade at about $3.65 these days. That’s epic value destruction of more than 97%.
What went so wrong? BlackBerry had an amazingly profitable existing business. Competing with Apple would have meant throwing away this formula for success and probably cratering revenue and income. It’s very hard for a public company to pivot radically like this. Shareholders don’t like it — they want steadily growing income, not wild swings and big risky bets.
So, BlackBerry stuck to its guns for a few years, and by the time it had to change, it was too late: Everyone was already addicted to their iPhones, not their “CrackBerries” (as BlackBerries used to be called).
Apple won the mobile revolution, hands down. Its stock has risen more than 3,000% since May 2008, and is now worth $3.33 trillion.
A new tech revolution has begun, though. Generative artificial intelligence is remaking the industry in radical ways, and there’s concern among some on Wall Street that Apple could be facing its own “BlackBerry Moment” now.
This catchy phrase was in the title of a new research note on Friday by Dan Ives, a tech analyst at Wedbush Securities.
In a striking departure from his typically bullish tone, Ives issued a stark warning to Apple: Move aggressively into AI or risk becoming the next BlackBerry.
While rivals such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon surge ahead in AI innovation, Ives said Apple is “on a park bench drinking lemonade,” watching, rather than getting in the race.
With 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones in circulation, the company holds an unparalleled platform, but it risks squandering that lead without a bold AI play, Ives wrote.
The analyst outlined three strategic imperatives for Apple to avoid a BlackBerry moment:
- Acquire Perplexity: The AI-native search engine startup could serve as a cornerstone of a revitalized Siri. Ives called Perplexity’s tech “some of the most impressive in the AI world” and argued a +$30 billion acquisition would be a small price relative to Apple’s potential AI monetization upside. (“We are unaware of any M&A discussions that involve Perplexity,” a spokesperson for the startup said.)
- Bring in AI Talent from the Outside: Apple’s innovation pace has stagnated, Ives said, comparing recent product launches to reruns of “Back to the Future.” He urged Apple to shake up its executive ranks with outside AI leaders, warning that the current team, including Tim Cook, is running in place.
- Double Down on Google’s Gemini: Despite regulatory headwinds, Ives believes Apple must fully embrace Google’s Gemini AI chatbot for deep integration into the iPhone ecosystem. OpenAI is not a viable long-term partner, he said, and time is running out for Apple to place its bets.
When Apple fanboys get upset at their beloved company, it’s time to pay close attention.
The message is clear: Cupertino must stop watching the AI party from afar and start leading it. (I asked Apple for comment on all this on Friday. It didn’t respond.)
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