For years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has moved his country closer to the United States, in particular by focusing on his relationship with President Trump, whom he has called a “true friend.”
The much-touted bond, nurtured through platitudes and joint appearances at stadium rallies during Mr. Trump’s first term, led one television anchor sympathetic to India’s leader to coo that “they have extraordinary chemistry.” Another chipped in: “When the two of them are onstage together, it is like lightning.”
But just when Mr. Modi needed to lean into that relationship, he has instead had to weather a series of blows from Mr. Trump that is hurting his strongman reputation at home. Indian officials are wondering how the historic highs in the relationship have soured so quickly.
Mr. Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that he was slapping 25 percent tariffs on India, as well as an unspecified additional penalty for India’s economic ties to Russia, was just the latest in a series of slights. Mr. Modi has also faced a storm of criticism over the Trump administration’s treatment of India, which it has seemingly been treating as an equal to its smaller archnemesis, Pakistan.
Analysts and officials in New Delhi say the damage runs deeper: It has thrown off a relationship that has been built painstakingly for decades, one that recognized India’s balancing act in a difficult region where China and Russia loom large. India had been allowed to quietly grow closer to the United States on its own terms and has taken a firmer stance on China.
“One of the attributes of Indian foreign policy in the past 20 or 25 years is that we built an equation, at the leader level and at the systemic level, with America through thick and thin, through multiple transitions,” said Ashok Malik, the chair of the India practice at The Asia Group and a former adviser to the Modi government. “That has been shaken.”
Mr. Malik said recent developments show the countries aren’t exactly on the same page strategically and relations appear to be the worst since the early 1990s, “which was a very testy time.”
During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Modi joined the U.S. president on a stage in Houston and hailed him as his “true friend in the White House” in a speech full of flattery. But just days ahead of a visit for Mr. Trump’s inauguration for a second term in January, the United States deported planeloads of Indian immigrants in shackles. Images of the deportations caused a political storm at home for an image-conscious Mr. Modi, signaling from the U.S. that he should not expect Indians to be treated more sensitively than any other nationality.
This spring, things got worse. When India took military action against Pakistan, which it blamed for a terror attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people, it thought it could count on the U.S. to take its side.
Instead, President Trump, who had in the past penalized Pakistan for being a “safe haven for terrorists,” essentially treated both countries as equals. When they agreed to a cease-fire, Mr. Trump went on to repeatedly claim that he had forced the deal on New Delhi, much to the embarrassment of Mr. Modi. As the Indian leader tried to control the damage at home, Mr. Trump added salt to the wound by inviting Pakistan’s powerful army chief to lunch, a departure from established protocol.
Then came the tariffs. Although many countries have had to wrestle with Mr. Trump’s desire to make trade deals that favor the United States, India has not yet done so, despite India’s commerce minister saying they had made “fantastic progress.”
There have been frictions between India’s protectionist system and every American administration, but it is the manner in which Mr. Trump is conducting business in his second term that has presented a struggle, officials said.
Diplomatic continuity has been hampered during Mr. Trump’s second term, one Indian official said, as a large number of positions dealing with Indian issues, including the post of the U.S. ambassador to New Delhi, are still vacant six months into the administration’s tenure.
India’s exports to the United States have been growing rapidly, making the U.S. its largest trading partner. Trade in goods alone between the countries is estimated to be about $130 billion, with pharmaceuticals and electronics — including Apple’s new iPhones — among India’s major exports.
Some of the biggest shipments from India to the United States, such as gems and jewelry, create value that is hard to calculate. For instance, diamonds are flown back and forth between the two countries as American buyers make selections, and Indian companies cut and polish the stones, and later set them in jewelry. It is not clear which stages will be affected by the tariffs.
But a major sticking point in the trade negotiations has been agriculture, which has long been a politically sensitive area for any leader in India. For Mr. Modi, it is a particular minefield — the biggest setback of his 10 years in office came in the form a prolonged farmers’ protest that choked New Delhi in 2021 and forced him to withdraw market reforms.
India’s agriculture sector, which half of its population of 1.4 billion still relies on, is deeply troubled, and many farmers are in debt. Opening the market to American products, by expanding quotas on almonds or apples, for example, could exacerbate the situation and make competition difficult.
But Indian officials say negotiations have progressed on opening up to some American agricultural products without hurting the interests of Indian farmers.
What has particularly surprised many in India is Mr. Trump’s penalty over India’s purchases of oil and weapons from Russia.
In the early months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India faced strong pressure from the Biden administration and European countries to cut back its ties to Moscow. But over time, that pressure dwindled, and it seemed the Western governments preferred to focus on New Delhi’s potential as a counterweight to the larger threat of China. India now imports up to two million barrels of oil a day, making it the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China.
Mr. Trump’s threat to penalize India may be a reflection of his frustrations over a lack of progress with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, but analysts say it is more likely a negotiating tactic.
India has otherwise already reduced its historic defense reliance on Moscow — a reliable friend since the Cold War era — and is increasingly purchasing its big-ticket platforms from the United States and its Western allies.
The nuance in the bilateral relationship embraced by U.S. presidents since Bill Clinton because of India’s rising importance to America’s national security appears to be fading, said Dr. Aparna Pande, the director of the India Initiative at Hudson Institute.
“India’s primary challenge is that, for the first time in 35 years, it is faced with an American administration that is not driven by strategic altruism,” Dr. Pande said.
Alex Travelli contributed reporting.
Mujib Mashal is the South Asia bureau chief for The Times, helping to lead coverage of India and the diverse region around it, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan.
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