We study the effects of climate change on people. We know, from the best available science, that climate change will endanger the health and livelihood of most Americans alive today.
After a long and sweeping review, the U.S. government came to a similar conclusion in 2009, when the federal Environmental Protection Agency issued a so-called endangerment finding — a move that signaled a high level of government confidence in the data it was reviewing.
The finding established that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause climate change are harmful pollutants. In turn, this meant that these gases could be regulated by the Clean Air Act, empowering the E.P.A. to issue regulations on emissions of these gases from cars, trucks, power plants and other sources, backed by stronger science.
Reasonable people will disagree about how best to address climate change. The purpose of America’s endangerment findings is to acknowledge that a hazard exists so that the government can protect Americans from it. Think of the finding like car headlights in the dark, helping us see dangers ahead and avoid them.
The Trump administration this week took the first step to overturn the finding, by issuing a proposal that claims that the rule is scientifically and legally invalid, as well as unjustifiably costly. After a comment period, the administration could try to finalize the withdrawal of the finding next year.
The consequence — and likely goal — of the administration’s gamble, if it succeeds against inevitable legal challenges, will be to begin unraveling several regulations that have begun to make a dent in America’s contribution to climate change and the hazards it creates.
A key element of the administration’s proposal is to redefine what it means for air pollution to cause harm. If a pollutant causes climate change, it would no longer count as hurting us. This runs counter to both basic logic and a growing mountain of science documenting direct harms from greenhouse gas emissions via climate change.
Why are we so confident in the dangers ahead? Humans are highly adaptable and Americans are particularly so, but the data and evidence indicate that climate change will cause many Americans to die earlier than they otherwise would. High temperatures will kill Americans by stressing underlying conditions, such as heart disease. We expect that intensifying hurricanes, more frequent floods and smoke from more frequent forest fires together will most likely kill millions of Americans in the coming century.
In addition to intensifying natural threats, climate change will make households and communities in America more dangerous for their inhabitants. Environmental conditions affect our bodies and minds, particularly how we make decisions and turn to violence. Higher temperatures are associated with more miscarriages and more domestic violence. While perhaps surprising, the link between rape and temperature is one of the strongest ?download=true” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>findings in our field. We fear that additional heat from climate change will lead to more suicides, murders and assaults.
Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of acute disasters, such as the recent devastating fires in Maui, Los Angeles and Paradise, Calif.; the floods in Texas; and the hurricane damage in Puerto Rico and North Carolina. As health insurance and property insurance become more expensive or access to coverage disappears, coping with these risks will be increasingly expensive. Taxpayers will bear many additional costs when uninsured losses fall to public social safety net programs.
Farmers are expected to suffer some of the most serious losses to climate change. Annual crop losses throughout much of the Corn Belt are projected to be significant. Agricultural innovation, which we once expected to compensate for these losses, appears more sluggish than predicted. Losing access to water resources will drive up costs for farmers, and climate change will hurt the value of American farmland.
The Trump administration argues that slowing greenhouse gas emissions has harmed the economy and impedes business — but climate change will, too, only more so. Economic growth will slow, food prices will very likely rise, and vast tracts of American real estate will lose value. We predict that workers will become less productive, less happy and more prone to safety errors. Demands on public services will increase while the cost of servicing new debt will probably rise. In contrast, climate change is expected to generally enhance some economic opportunities for Russia and Canada.
Parents may feel a growing urgency to warn their children about climate change, since it will reduce their opportunities in life. Exposure to high temperatures in school or regional disasters lowers their ability to learn and perform well on exams. Rising temperatures at home and other climate changes worsen sleep, exercise, mental health and happiness.
Learning about the consequences of climate change can feel overwhelming and scary, like staring over the edge of a cliff. Unlike our ancestors who relied on stars, tea leaves and fortune tellers to try to peer into the future, we have data and scientific tools that empower us to understand the results of the different choices in front of us.
Previously, the E.P.A. led the world in bringing the best available science to climate policy discussions. Overturning the endangerment finding would bench the agency right when we need the E.P.A.’s tools the most.
There are opportunities to push back. The public can comment on the administration’s proposal. And when legal challenges to this rollback end up in federal court, judges should recognize the overwhelming evidence on the dangers of greenhouse gases to Americans.
Solomon Hsiang and Marshall Burke teach at the Doerr School of Sustainability at Stanford University.
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