How Russia’s air war against Ukraine changed, as seen from a NATO surveillance jet

IN POLISH AIRSPACE — The crew of this NATO surveillance aircraft may not be able to see every detail of the fighting in Ukraine from its cruising altitude of 30,000 feet, but they still have a surprisingly clear picture of the battlefield.

From high above Eastern Europe, NATO’s airborne surveillance crews operating the alliance’s E-3 Sentry planes have tracked Russia’s evolving air war since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In the early days, aircrews watched Russian warplanes fly bombing runs toward the front lines. Now, aircraft are rarely crossing into Ukrainian airspace, having largely been replaced by standoff missile strikes and drone attacks as both sides rely more on air defenses and long-range firepower.

At the beginning of the war, “you saw a lot of activity.” Capt. Jasper, a Dutch surveillance controller who monitors the airspace and surface, told Business Insider aboard the E-3 during a recent mission over Eastern Europe in support of NATO’s Baltic Sentry operation.

But as the front lines gradually froze and the war became more static, there was “less activity with airplanes,” he said. “That’s actually what we saw on our side.”

In the early weeks of the invasion, Russian jets and helicopters were commonly seen in Ukrainian skies, flying deep into the country to support advancing forces, though often inadequately. But losses and effective Ukrainian air defenses, which Russia failed to suppress, blunted its efforts.

The war moved east, where Russia could lob missiles into Ukraine or let its bombers fire from relative safety. Both sides fielded air defenses so thick that the NATO aircrews watching from high above could see the shift — pilots on both sides stopped flying into range, and Russia’s air war became increasingly remote.

The skies over Ukraine have become a battlefield defined by denial, not air dominance. Neither side owns the skies, so Russia and Ukraine punish the enemy from a distance. And the E-3 surveillance crews have seen the difference.

NATO’s eyes in the sky

The E-3, a modified Boeing 707/320 passenger jet, can detect hostile aircraft, ships, and missile launchers from far away. It has a 360-degree rotating radar dome that can see over 300 miles across the air and surface, and high-tech sensors that, unlike ground stations, are not restricted by terrain or the Earth’s curvature.

The airborne warning and control system, or AWACS, can also track friendly assets and interface with them. Data collected by the plane can be easily distributed in real time to NATO aircraft, ships, or command centers, giving allies critical situational awareness during war or peacetime.

NATO received its first E-3 in the early 1980s, and the small-but-capable fleet has flown in support of numerous missions and conflict operations in the decades since, including over North America, Europe, and the Middle East.

Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a turning point for the AWACS fleet, which began to see increased activity in Eastern Europe. After Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO intensified its air patrols to better monitor Russian activities and deter any aggression on the alliance’s eastern flank.

Maj. Ben, an American officer and the E-3’s fighter allocator in charge of coordinating with other aircraft, said NATO’s air policing missions in Eastern Europe have gone from sporadic to regular since 2022.

“We fly more — provide more deterrence,” explained Maj. Ben, who, like other members of the multinational crew that BI spoke with during the flight, could only be identified by his rank and first name for security reasons.

The E-3 doesn’t carry weapons, but it provides situational awareness, coordination, and visibility that extend the alliance’s radar horizon by hundreds of miles and make it harder for an adversary to hide movements or attempt surprise attacks, boosting deterrence.

The AWACS fleet is also tracking how the battlefield has changed in Ukraine. Capt. Jasper said airpower was a heavy feature at the start of the full-scale invasion, but this slowed down as the war shifted from maneuver-heavy combat to a more attritional campaign, and the front lines became more static.

“What we see is more ISR flights — surveillance and reconnaissance flights — and not as much air activity into Ukraine anymore,” he explained, and recalled how the crew could watch on their computer screens as aircraft took off, flew toward the front lines, and turned away — signalling that a bombing run had ended.

Capt. Donny Demmers, a Dutch public affairs officer who was permitted to share his full name, said aircraft avoid getting too close to the front lines now because Ukraine and Russia are both fielding sophisticated air defense systems that threaten enemy jets.

“But you still see there will be a lot of missile attacks,” he explained. However, instead of close bombing runs, the attacks are carried out at longer ranges using standoff weapons.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have constantly pushed Kyiv’s Western military backers for additional air defense systems and ammunition to replenish exhausted stockpiles amid Russia’s worsening missile and drone attacks on major cities.

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