It was supposed to be a celebration. But ahead of a meeting of European and Chinese leaders in Beijing on Thursday, expectations could hardly be lower.
After Donald Trump’s return to the White House, hopes were high that Beijing and Brussels could reach a gradual détente. And this year’s EU-China summit, marking the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, was meant to reflect that. Fast-forward six months and relations have hit a new low.
“The EU-China relationship has been an increasingly tense relationship for the past six to seven years, and it’s not getting any better,” said Noah Barkin, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank.
“The summit is likely to underscore that both as far as the economic relationship goes and as far as China’s support for Russia goes, there has been very little progress between Brussels and Beijing.”
As she tries to smooth ties with Washington, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s tone toward Beijing has turned increasingly hawkish. In reply, China has warned against sealing any transatlantic trade deal that would harm its interests.
The elephant in the room, in addition to the long-running trade disputes: Russia’s war on Ukraine. And, right on cue before the summit, the EU listed two Chinese banks in its latest sanctions against Russia, leading Beijing to vent its “strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition” at a step that it called “egregious.”
Despite the harsher tone, Dutch Member of the European Parliament Bart Groothuis still thinks “the EU is handling China too carefully.” China’s crackdown on exports of critical raw materials are a case in point, he told POLITICO, and demand a tough response: “You’ll have to hit back with market access,” said Groothuis, who sits on the Parliament’s trade committee.
The irritants are multiplying: Earlier this month, Beijing banned government purchases of EU medical devices, in retaliation against Brussels putting up rules for Chinese medical equipment. That comes on top of a lingering dispute over the EU’s imposition of duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles last year and Beijing’s retaliatory duties on European liquor.
The setup of the summit reflects just how tense ties between the two economic superpowers have become. First, Chinese President Xi Jinping snubbed von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa earlier this year by declining an invitation to come to Brussels. Then, the summit — originally planned to run for two days — was shortened to one day only.
Now, von der Leyen and Costa are expected to meet with Xi for a more general discussion on EU-China relations in the morning, according to an EU official. Leaders will discuss geopolitics over lunch, while a meeting with Premier Li Qiang will focus on economy and trade issues.
As at previous summits, there won’t be a joint statement. The Chinese foreign ministry only officially confirmed Xi’s attendance on Monday.
Stuck in the middle
Earlier this year, von der Leyen had struck an unusually conciliatory tone toward Beijing, prompting cautious hopes for a diplomatic reset of the bloc’s relations with the Middle Kingdom.
In a speech to EU ambassadors in February, she said the EU needed to “engage constructively with China,” adding that “we can find agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties.”
That openness was welcomed by Beijing, which looked to build ties with Europe when Trump later hiked tariffs to 145 percent. When China hit back by imposing strict controls on exports of rare earths, Europe was caught in the crossfire.
Although EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič negotiated faster permitting procedures, Beijing has refused to lift the controls for EU companies — which continue to sound the alarm about disruptions to critical industry supply chains.
“Why aren’t we in Europe getting any gallium, if the goal is to hit the U.S.?” asked Groothuis. Gallium is used in military applications and many other high-tech products.
He said the Chinese authorities were subjecting EU companies that request permission to buy gallium and other materials to heavy questioning: “How much gallium goes in which product? Who is your customer? How much stock do you have? They are just mapping out where they can squeeze us in the future.”
Groothuis, a member of Renew, has called in the Parliament for the EU to “do squeezing of its own” on market access, visas, migration issues and public procurement. If the bloc isn’t willing to make use of that leverage, he said, “it’s like someone is pissing in your boot and you’re like: ‘Ah, that’s nice and warm’.”
Little to offer
That’s unlikely to cut much ice with China’s supreme leader.
“China has little incentive to offer anything beyond the usual low-effort, easy wins to the EU,” said Francesca Ghiretti, director of the China Europe Initiative at the RAND think tank.
“Beijing believes it is in a position of strength, having secured a temporary truce with the U.S. more quickly and easily than anticipated, while the EU remains engaged in challenging negotiations.”
Before heading to Beijing, von der Leyen and Costa will land in Tokyo for the official launch of an EU-Japan alliance that links the two economies’ industrial policy more closely in the face of Chinese overcapacity and U.S. tariffs — a signal that Brussels hopes Beijing won’t miss.
Among the scant summit deliverables is a rumored order for Airbus passenger jets. With a lack of announcements on trade and security, the two sides had hoped to sign a joint communiqué on climate, but that’s unlikely to happen.
An EU official said they would consider the China summit a success “if our counterparts acknowledge and understand our concerns,” for instance around overproduction and fair competition globally. “Then it would be up to them to react.”
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