Polls open on Sunday in Japan, where half of the seats in its Upper House of Parliament will be contested in the first national election since Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba took office last year. The emergence of right-wing populist parties that appeal to younger voters has threatened the long-governing Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, with polls showing they could lose seats, and perhaps even their majority, in the chamber.
Japan faces four big problems: difficult trade talks with Washington, a more assertive China, an aging population and the sharpest price increases in 30 years. Of these, the last has been the single biggest issue with voters, whose incomes have not kept pace. A hot-button issue has been the cost of rice, a vital staple that has doubled in price because of poor harvests and government policies.
There is also a growing discontent with the United States, which no longer looks like the reliable partner it once was. Many Japanese have felt betrayed by the Trump administration’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on all of their country’s exports to the United States on Aug. 1, unless Tokyo opens up its already troubled rice market and agrees to buy more U.S.-made cars.
Immigration has also emerged as an issue, as Japan has taken in an additional million workers over the past three years to fill jobs left vacant by the decline in the working-age population. While foreign residents make up only 3 percent of Japan’s population, populist parties like the Sanseito have won voters with calls to limit immigration.
Here is a guide to the election and why it matters.
What’s happening on Sunday?
Japan holds Upper House elections every three years; this cycle will decide who holds 124 of 248 seats. Voting takes place from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday, with exit polls released minutes after it ends. Official results will come early Monday.
Polls suggest the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, a small Buddhist party called the Komeito, could lose 10 to 20 seats. Mr. Ishiba has set a goal of holding on to the coalition’s majority, which would mean winning 50 of its 66 seats that are up for re-election. If it fails, Mr. Ishiba could face calls to resign.
What are the main issues?
Cost of living: Inflation that had been absent for a generation is now running above 3 percent. Campaigning has been unusually volatile, with street rallies focused on grocery prices as a symbol of public dissatisfaction. A survey found 28 percent of voters cited rice and other food prices as their top concern, outranking security and immigration issues.
Trade and tariffs: Trade talks between the United States and Japan have stalled after seven rounds of negotiations. President Trump has threatened a 25 percent blanket tariff that would take effect Aug. 1. A loss of the governing coalition’s majority in the Upper House, and a change in prime ministers, could weaken the Japanese government’s ability to respond to Washington’s demands.
Who are the main players?
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Shigeru Ishiba, 68, Japan’s prime minister since last year, has campaigned on standing firm against U.S. pressure while protecting farmers.
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Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, a self-styled “rice minister” and the son of a popular former prime minister, is viewed as a future party savior within the Liberal Democrats.
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Sohei Kamiya, 47, a former army reservist, heads Sanseito, a new populist party that has won over younger voters with a platform inspired by Mr. Trump to restrict immigration and put “Japanese First.” Polls show Sanseito poised to win at least 10 seats and maybe twice that number.
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Yuichiro Tamaki, 56, leads the Democratic Party for the People, another right-wing party that has drawn younger voters. Mr. Tamaki’s party is more moderate than Sanseito, and a strong showing could position it to join a possible future coalition government.
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The voters, an increasingly older population, with nearly 30 percent over 65. Polls show that older voters favor the Liberal Democrats or the Constitutional Democratic Party, the established liberal opposition party that has promised to defend the current antiwar Constitution, promote gender equality and shut down all nuclear plants in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
What’s at stake?
If the coalition preserves or expands its majority, Mr. Ishiba would gain breathing space to negotiate with Washington and pass a record defense budget aimed at countering China. A narrower win could embolden rivals inside his party, particularly the nationalist right wing once led by Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister who was assassinated in 2022.
The governing coalition’s loss of the chamber entirely could create legislative gridlock, making it harder to pass budgets, treaties and trade deals. A change of control in the Upper House could also trigger a snap election for the more powerful Lower House.
Martin Fackler is the acting Tokyo bureau chief for The Times.
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