Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins of Maine was dealt a polling blow ahead of her potential reelection bid as the 2026 midterms approach, with Democrats hoping to unseat her in the Pine Tree State.
Why It Matters
Collins has continued gaining reelection despite Maine supporting Democrats in presidential elections since 1992, partly due to her moderate voting record.
But Democrats are hoping a strong national push and diminishing approval from constituents during President Donald Trump‘s second administration could make her vulnerable next year. Whether Collins can retain support among independents and moderate Democrats will have key implications for whether she will be reelected next year.
What To Know
Morning Consult released its quarterly poll of senators’ approval ratings this week and found that Collins is among four with negative scores.
Only 38 percent of Mainers approve of her job performance, according to the pollster, which noted it is a “record low” for Collins. Meanwhile, 54 percent disapprove of her performance—a high point in the survey’s history, spanning to 2017.
That marks a notable decline from the fourth quarter of 2024, when 47 percent of Mainers approved of Collins and 44 percent disapproved, according to Morning Consult. In the third quarter of 2024, 50 percent of Mainers approved, and 42 percent disapproved of Collins.
Morning Consult polls are based on a “three-month roll-up” of responses from daily tracking surveys among registered voters.
Collins last won reelection in 2020 against Democrat Sara Gideon. At the time, most polls suggested Gideon had a lead, but Collins ultimately ended up winning with just over 50 percent of the vote.
The only other senators with negative approval ratings in the poll were GOP Senators Joni Ernst of Iowa, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Despite hopes of a blue wave, Democrats are facing a tough Senate map, making Collins’ seat a must-win as they aim to regain control of Congress‘ upper chamber. In addition to Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 percentage points—North Carolina, which Trump carried by about 3 percentage points, is viewed as Democrats’ other top flip opportunity.
Who Could Susan Collins Face in 2026 Midterms?
On the Democratic side, two candidates have declared their intent to run. David Costello, who ran in 2024 and held several different positions in Maryland, including acting secretary of the state’s Department of the Environment, is running again. Jordan Wood, who served as chief of staff to former Representative Katie Porter, a California Democrat, is also running.
Governor Janet Mills has also not ruled out running. Some Democrats view her as their best chance of winning, as she has also won statewide by comfortable margins.
Morning Consult’s latest gubernatorial approval ratings, however, also delivered troubling news to Mills, though she was still narrowly above water with Mainers, scoring a +2 approval rating.
“Janet Mills of Maine is term-limited as governor and viewed as one of the Democratic Party‘s best options to challenge moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins in next year’s midterm elections. But she’s also the most unpopular Democratic governor in the country, and one of the only to lose popularity since the last quarter of 2024,” the report reads.
Collins has distanced herself from Trump, voting against his signature “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” over Medicaid cuts. She has long cast herself as the most moderate Republican in the Senate, which has helped her win elections.
A Pan Atlantic Research Poll, which surveyed 840 likely Maine voters from May 12 to May 26, had better news for Collins. In that survey, 49 percent of respondents viewed her favorably, while only 45 percent viewed her unfavorably.
A Collins spokesperson pointed to that poll when reached by Newsweek.
Conversely, a University of New Hampshire poll released last month found that only 14 percent of Mainers view Collins favorably, while 57 percent view her unfavorably. An additional 26 percent were neutral. That poll surveyed 846 Maine residents from June 19 to June 23, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Nick Puglia, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, previously told Newsweek: “No one fights harder for Maine than Susan Collins, and she continues delivering big wins like protecting Social Security for over 25,000 Mainers and millions of Americans.”
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of Cook Political Report, wrote on X: “For all the talk of Dem SEN opportunities in NC, TX and even IA, the red lights are really blaring in MAINE, where Morning Consult polling shows Trump underwater by 17 pts. SEN. Collins at -16. And yet NO serious Dem is taking the plunge to challenge her.”
What Happens Next
Collins had not made a formal announcement about her reelection bid, but told CNN in May it is her “inclination to run” and that she is “preparing to do so.”
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but that Collins “has an advantage.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball also classifies the race as leaning toward Republicans.
The post Susan Collins Dealt New Polling Blow Ahead of 2026 Midterms appeared first on Newsweek.
