BRUSSELS — Iceland has enough public support to reopen accession talks with the EU, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO ahead of a visit to the island today by Ursula von der Leyen.
The European Commission president’s trip comes as Iceland contemplates the consequences of a trade war between its two largest trading partners, on top of pressure from the U.S. to bolster defense and Washington’s threats to annex its North Atlantic neighbor Greenland.
“I would say the public support for recommencing the negotiations is there,” Gunnarsdóttir said. She added that reopening accession talks is “vital when it comes to the geopolitical situation,” and noted that Iceland had already advanced “pretty far into the negotiation process” during its previous accession talks from 2010-2013.
The country’s pro-EU coalition government has promised a referendum on restarting EU accession talks by 2027, as they had been halted in 2013 under a previous right-wing government.
Gunnarsdóttir, who is also the leader of Iceland’s pro-EU Reform party, said she “trust[s] the nation and the people of Iceland to decide to continue” and “hope[s] that people say yes.” She added she would like to “speed up the process” if the public do vote in favor of reopening accession talks, but acknowledged that “sensitive, emotional” topics like fisheries, agriculture and energy would be sticking points in any future negotiations.
Iceland is already part of the Schengen free travel area and is a long-time member of the European Economic Area.
According to a poll earlier this year, 58 percent of Icelanders support reopening accession talks — but support is lower for EU membership, with just 45 percent in favor, 35 percent opposed and 20 percent undecided.
Von der Leyen will be meeting with the country’s prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, and touring Keflavik air base, which is strategically significant for NATO military exercises.
Her visit “underlines this good relationship between Iceland and the EU, and also that we are going to hopefully deepen that collaboration now and in the foreseeable future,” regardless of whether Iceland joins the EU, Gunnarsdóttir said.
Defense boost, but no army
Iceland, as the only NATO member with no army but with a strategically important location in the North Atlantic, occupies a unique position in the alliance, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump pressures members to bump up their military spending.
While there are “no current plans” to build up a standing army, Iceland is “very serious on strengthening our defense cooperation,” said Gunnarsdóttir, who is also responsible for the country’s new defense strategy.
She added that Iceland, which currently hosts NATO exercises and provides infrastructure and other support, wants to “be a respected and reliable ally, both in NATO and also … with the EU.”
The incoming defense strategy will include “more support to allied operations out of Iceland,” Gunnarsdóttir reported, including cyber defense and strengthening domestic capabilities such as the national coast guard. The country’s parliament is to agree on the content of the strategy by autumn.
In the meantime, satisfying a NATO ask to spend 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense-related goals is the country’s “main objective,” Gunnarsdóttir said.
Washington calling
Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, another Arctic island with strategic positioning for defense, are setting the tone for Iceland’s future referendum, with the country’s leader saying she doesn’t want her compatriots to join the EU out of fear.
Gunnarsdóttir said the government is “still discussing” Washington’s moves on Greenland and “how they will affect us here,” but said there are “no indications” that America’s policy toward Iceland will change. She underlined that “there is nothing to be decided on Greenland’s behalf without the Greenlanders.”
In the meantime, her country is “strengthening our discussion and relationship to the U.S. as well to the EU.” She said the relationship with the U.S. is vital “for our security, for the security in the North Atlantic and for Greenland as well.”
But Gunnarsdóttir admitted that the prospect of a trade war between the EU and the U.S. — Iceland’s two most significant trading partners — was “very worrisome.” Trump has hit Iceland with 10 percent tariffs but has held off on a more punitive rate.
Reykjavik doesn’t have immediate plans to retaliate, the foreign minister said. “For the time being, we want to have a dialog with the U.S. government.”
But she stressed that as the EU holds eleventh-hour talks with Washington to avoid an all-out trade war, any response by the 27-nation bloc should “not entail new barriers or restrictions within the EEA.”
As Gunnarsdóttir was speaking, a volcano erupted in the southwest of the island. The minister hailed the event as a signal it was “a very good time” for von der Leyen’s visit, and as showcasing the Icelandic people’s “endurance and resilience but also resourcefulness” in their turbulent environment.
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