Days after he threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on Mexico over what he said was its failure to stop drug cartels, President Trump doubled down on Wednesday, accusing the country’s politicians of being controlled by those cartels.
The cartels have “very strong controls over Mexico,” he said while signing an act regarding fentanyl. He added later, “Can’t let that happen. The Mexican authorities are petrified to go to work because the cartels have a tremendous grip on Mexico and the politicians.”
Mexican officials have been negotiating for months with the United States in hopes of staving off further damage to their country’s export-driven economy. But those efforts — and their work to address Mr. Trump’s concerns about cartels and migration — appear to have had limited effect.
In a letter to Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, released on Saturday, Mr. Trump claimed that the countries had a “strong relationship” and that “Mexico has been helping me secure the border.” Indeed, the number of people crossing the southern border illegally has dropped to levels not seen in decades.
But Mr. Trump said that because Mexico “still has not stopped” drug cartels or the flow of fentanyl into the United States, he would impose a 30 percent tariff starting Aug. 1.
Ms. Sheinbaum, who has previously bristled at Mr. Trump’s allegations of Mexican officials’ ties to cartels, defended Mexico’s efforts this week and claimed the authorities were seizing and destroying drug laboratories “every day.” She added that the United States must also control the flow of weapons from its side of the border that empowers the cartels.
Since assuming office in January, Mr. Trump has gone back and forth on tariffs on Mexico, despite the fact that he negotiated a trade deal during his first term with Mexico and Canada.
In his recent letter, Mr. Trump added that drugs were not the United States’ only concern and pointed to other Mexican policies that he said had contributed to “unsustainable” trade deficits.
But the cartels appeared to be his focus: If Mexico “is successful in challenging the Cartels and stopping the flow of Fentanyl,” he wrote, “we will consider an adjustment.”
What does this mean for Mexico?
While Mr. Trump threatened similar levies on Canada and the European Union, Mexico is unique. Last year, the country surpassed China, a bigger target of the president’s tariffs, to become the United States’ largest trading partner.
But Mr. Trump has repeatedly complained about the United States’ goods trade deficit with Mexico. In 2024, the United States government said it had imported $506 billion worth of goods from its neighbor, while exporting $334 billion.
There is hope in Mexico that the effect of Mr. Trump’s latest threat could be minimized. Two days after the president imposed a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports in March, he exempted goods that trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact from his first term.
Currently because of that exemption, about 87 percent of Mexican exports to America do not incur levies, according to the Mexican government. (However, some Mexican goods, including cars, steel and aluminum — and soon, tomatoes — are subject to separate, sector-specific tariffs.)
Although Mr. Trump’s letter didn’t mention that exemption, a White House official who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly said on Saturday that it would most likely continue. The official also said the 30 percent rate would replace the previous 25 percent levies that Mr. Trump imposed on the country.
Ms. Sheinbaum said this week that the continuation of the exemption needed to be clarified.
Guillermo García, a former Mexican government trade negotiator, said that if the exemption continues, Mr. Trump’s tariffs would have an effect, “but it’ll be mitigated.”
“But one of the things that is hurting Mexico’s economic relationship the most is the uncertainty,” said Mr. García, who is currently an associate at De la Calle Madrazo Mancera, an economic and trade consulting firm in Mexico. “For Mexico, what it needs the most is to stop the wave of uncertainty.”
In part due to tariffs, analysts have projected Mexico’s economy to barely grow, if not shrink, this year — an analysis that Ms. Sheinbaum has rejected.
What more could Mexico do to combat drug cartels?
Since taking office in October, Ms. Sheinbaum has adopted an aggressive approach against Mexico’s major drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
Her government has arrested thousands of cartel operatives, including top figures from the Sinaloa Cartel; deployed troops to the U.S.-Mexico border; seized large quantities of fentanyl and other drugs; and handed over 29 cartel members to U.S. authorities.
Despite Mr. Trump welcoming these actions, he has concluded that Ms. Sheinbaum’s government has fallen short, leaving many in Mexico wondering what it is that he truly wants and whether any efforts to dismantle the cartels would be enough to stave off economic pain.
Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst based in Mexico, said the new tariffs could be intended to pressure Ms. Sheinbaum to target political figures suspected of ties to organized crime.
“Trump wisely detected Mexico’s weak spot in this area of political collusion with organized crime, and he knows how to use it and exploit it,” he said.
Going after high-ranking public officials suspected of corruption carries an enormous political cost for Ms. Sheinbaum’s government, Mr. Bravo Regidor said.
“Trump has created a situation where all expectations for change are placed squarely in Mexico demanding it to change and do more, but there are a host of things that would need to change in the United States for Mexico’s efforts to be more effective,” he said, pointing to the United States’ mass consumption of drugs and production of guns.
Others analysts argued that instead of chasing flashy victories like mass arrests, Ms. Sheinbaum should focus on lasting structural reforms, like strengthening police forces nationwide and bolstering investigations into money laundering
“We’re caught in this cycle where we respond to pressures by public opinion and by the United States with quick actions,” said Iliana Padilla Reyes, professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. “We react by plugging the leak in the pipe, applying a temporary fix, even though we know there’s a structural problem with the entire plumbing system of the house.”
So what happens next?
Ms. Sheinbaum said earlier this week that she felt “very sure” that the countries could reach a deal before Aug. 1 that would improve Mexico’s standing.
She noted the sides were close to reaching a security agreement. She said the pact would not include the possibility of U.S. troops operating in Mexico, which Mr. Trump had previously proposed to fight cartels, and instead focused on sharing information and intelligence.
If Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration were to impose retaliatory tariffs, Mr. Trump said in his recent letter that those rates would be added to the 30 percent rate he announced.
Pedro Casas Alatriste, the chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, said Mexican officials, who have been in Washington often, should accelerate negotiations with their U.S. counterparts and start taking issues off the table, such as steel and aluminum or tomatoes.
“The point is to start simplifying the problem,” he said.
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega contributed reporting.
James Wagner covers Latin America, including sports, and is based in Mexico City. A Nicaraguan American from the Washington area, he is a native Spanish speaker.
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