The chaos engulfing President Trump’s MAGA base might have some Democrats feeling confident about the 2026 midterms—but CNN’s Harry Enten is telling them to slow their roll.
During a Wednesday morning segment on CNN News Central, the data guru presented statistics demonstrating that Democrats are polling far behind where they were in previous bounce-back midterm election cycles.
CNN’s chief data analyst cited Ipsos data collected this month from the generic congressional ballot poll, which asks respondents whether they are more likely to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their next congressional race.
Democrats have a two-point advantage over Republicans, but Enten warned viewers that lead is minimal compared to past successful election cycles for the Democrats.
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
“Their lead is less than half, less than half, of where it was in either 2017 or 2005, in July of those years, the year before the midterm election,” Enten said. In both July 2005 and July 2017, Democrats led by seven points in the generic ballot.
When Enten analyzed the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House seat-by-seat, the picture became even more bleak. Presenting data from the Cook Political Report, Enten told viewers that the GOP has 12 more seats which are considered safe (meaning not in the “likely,” “lean,” or “tossup” categories) than the Democrats.
This 12-seat deficit is particularly egregious for Democrats, Enten said, given that in July 2005 and July 2017 Democrats had a seven-seat and a 33-seat advantage, respectively.
“At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does either 2018 or 2006,” Enten said.
Enten’s sobering analysis comes at a time when Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries have generally been sanguine about the party’s chances to retake the House.
NEW @CookPolitical: Echoes of 2018? Dems are well-positioned to take back House control in 2026 owing to a partisan intensity gap, but the underlying factors (economy, party images) are different this time. https://t.co/L4BGEPKtUV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 17, 2025
The last time a Republican president was in office for the midterms in 2018, Democrats rode a “blue wave” of opposition to Trump’s first-term agenda to authoritatively retake the House. In 2006, during George W. Bush’s second term, Democrats were even more successful, picking up 32 House seats and seven seats in the Senate.
But Enten signaled that despite Trump’s negative net approval rating, Republican hopes to maintain their trifecta of the House and Senate majorities plus the presidency remain alive.
“For anyone who’s writing the Republican House’s obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check, Republicans are still very much in the game.”
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