European Union officials have spent the past week finalizing a plan to hit back at the United States in response to President Trump’s tariffs, laying the groundwork to hit more than $100 billion worth of American imports with levies if negotiations on a new trade deal fail.
But a question looms over that effort.
“If it comes to it, will they?” asked Frances Burwell, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, a research organization.
Officials from the 27-nation bloc have spent months preparing to retaliate, only to hold off in favor of more talks. In April, E.U. policymakers approved a plan to impose tariffs on 21 billion euros (nearly $25 billion) of American goods. But they abruptly suspended them in a show of good will when Mr. Trump pivoted at the last minute and paused some painful across-the-board tariffs. The goal was to negotiate.
No deal was forthcoming.
Instead, Mr. Trump said on social media last week that he planned to impose 30 percent tariffs on the bloc starting on Aug. 1. After that announcement, E.U. officials chose to again delay that first batch of retaliatory tariffs — which had been suspended only through July 14 — to allow room for more talks. But they have also redoubled their vow to respond forcefully if necessary.
E.U. trade officials are now finishing up a second list of tariffs that would target an even longer list of American goods, one that amounts to €72 billion ($84 billion) of goods that includes Boeing airplanes and Kentucky bourbon. The final version was sent to member states on Monday, said diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an internal process. National representatives have not yet voted on the list.
That push to be prepared to retaliate is rooted in an uncomfortable reality. The European Union would prefer to come up with a negotiated solution and avoid a painful and protracted trade war, but the talks could still fail. Strength, many politicians and ministers pointed out, seems to be the only negotiating language that Mr. Trump understands.
It is necessary to “flash some muscles,” Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister, said on Monday. “If you want peace, you have to prepare for war, and I think that’s where we are.”
Maros Sefcovic, the E.U. trade commissioner, said that European ministers had become more adamant about striking back if a negotiated solution could not be reached.
Mr. Sefcovic has flown to Washington repeatedly and held regular calls with American officials, including Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, to try to reach an agreement. He has been clear that he thought that he was close — only to have the situation blow up after Mr. Trump issued his threat last week to impose 30 percent tariffs.
“We have to protect the jobs, you have to protect the businesses,” Mr. Sefcovic said at a news conference in Brussels on Monday.
Yet actually following through with the plan to hit back would be no easy choice.
Placing tariffs on American soybeans, handbags, machinery and other goods would make those products more expensive for consumers and businesses in France, Germany, Italy and other E.U. member states.
Given that, discussions over what products Brussels should target have been intense.
The tariffs that were prepared and nearly put into effect in April could be rolled out very quickly, because they were finalized and no longer up for debate. But they were always envisaged as only a first step: 21 billion euros’ worth of goods is not a lot in the context of a 1.6 trillion euro trans-Atlantic trading relationship.
“We will continue to prepare further countermeasures so we are fully prepared,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said on Sunday.
E.U. member states would still need to vote to approve the second set of proposed tariffs that would apply to €72 billion ($84 billion) worth of goods. The list initially covered €95 billion of products, but it was whittled down after feedback and lobbying.
After that, officials could consider using a new tool, the so-called anti-coercion instrument, to target big technology firms or other American service companies by imposing trade or investment restrictions on them. Such a move could hit American businesses in the pocketbook, but because it would be so painful and risk escalating the trade war, it is sometimes referred to as the “nuclear option” in Brussels.
“We are not there yet,” Ms. von der Leyen said on Sunday, when asked about using the tool. “This is very important. This is now the time for negotiations.”
Europe is still trying to speak gently while reminding the world that it carries several big sticks.
It would prefer not to use them.
Officials are hoping that a negotiated deal can be reached in the coming weeks and that the threatened 30 percent tariffs never come into effect. Tariffs hurt consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, they argue. By that logic, they say, delaying retaliation is a sign of rationality, not of timidity.
“I don’t think this is weakness,” said Mr. Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister. “It’s a clear signal that we don’t want to escalate things.”
Trying to shore up good will and hoping for the best has not been a winning strategy to date.
But “the pain threshold is quite high” for Europe to decide to retaliate, said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.
Mr. Rahman added that things would have to go very badly — an across-the-board tariff rate of perhaps 15 percent, along with charges on sectors — for Europe to hit back. Officials will want to avoid angering the Trump administration, especially at a time when the bloc depends heavily on the United States to help with the war in Ukraine.
“The Americans will really need to go mad if the Europeans are going to retaliate,” he said.
But if Mr. Trump follows through with his latest threat, that would firmly push the bloc over the edge, predicted Ignacio García Bercero, a former E.U. trade official who is now at Bruegel, an economic think tank.
“A 30 percent tariff would be no choice but to retaliate,” he said.
Jeanna Smialek is the Brussels bureau chief for The Times.
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